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02/15/2001 | Broker
Toronto Star
February 13, 2001
West Needs to Face Scary Prospect of Chaos in Ukraine
Stephen Handelman
STAR COLUMNIST
NEW YORK - A headless corpse. High-level corruption. A grenade attack on a
political opponent.
These ingredients and more - the stuff of a political thriller - have
plunged Ukraine into turmoil over the past three months. And they may soon
have an impact on the fragile East-West equilibrium that has prevailed since
the collapse of communism a decade ago.
Some 5,000 protesters marched through the main boulevard of Kiev this week
calling for the resignation of President Leonid Kuchma. Since December, a
``tent city'' in the capital has been home to demonstrators angered by
alleged government attempts to muzzle the press and, in some cases, to
murder opponents in mafia-style hits.
It began with the September disappearance of a Georgian-born Ukrainian
investigative online journalist named Georgy Gongadze, an outspoken critic
of government corruption.
On Nov. 2, a headless body found in a forest near Kiev was identified by his
wife as Gongadze's.
Later that month, an opposition politician named Oleksandr Moroz released a
bombshell: the tape of a conversation purportedly held between the president
and his chief aides in which they planned the journalist's disappearance.
``Give him to the Chechens,'' Kuchma allegedly told Interior Minister Yuri
Kravchenko in a conversation laced with expletives. ``Drive him out, undress
him, leave him without his pants.''
Moroz, who heads the Ukrainian Socialist Party, says he has other tapes
(obtained from a former security agent now in hiding in Europe) that
implicate the president and his chief aides in a campaign of intimidation
against their critics. ``The methods of those ruling our country are
criminal,'' he claims.
Cynics will say such things go on in neighbouring Russia all the time, so
why get excited? But that's just the point.
Even while Russia was becoming snarled in its post-Communist tangle of
crime, corruption and wild west capitalism, Ukraine seemed the quiet,
reliable model of a transition state.
It was never true, but Ukraine was easy to ignore. Its cautious approach to
a free market and its careful, unspectacular evolution toward democracy
appeared a sharp contrast with the chaos of its giant neighbour.
But Ukraine's tranquility was an illusion. The economy has been steadily
coming apart for several years, with a standard of living falling behind
Russia's.
Continued state control of key industries and enterprises has hampered
development and, just as in Russia, a small group of squabbling oligarchs
connected to the political leadership has earned windfall profits by
cheating the state treasury.
The most egregious case - until now - involved former prime minister Pavlo
Lazarenko.
He's sitting in a San Francisco jail, fighting extradition to Switzerland on
charges including the embezzlement of more than $1 billion (U.S.) siphoned
from natural gas imports from Russia.
Lazarenko has also been implicated in at least three contract murders.
Kuchma insists his efforts to tackle the corruption of previous government
officials, such as Lazarenko, explain why he has been singled out for
attack.
But it will be hard for him to escape the implications of what Ukrainian
opponents are calling ``Kuchmagate.''
How did things get this bad? The West bears part of the blame - for closing
its eyes so long.
The Clinton administration did refuse to see Kuchma's prime minister last
fall until Ukraine could demonstrate that it had ``cleaned up'' its act. But
the U.S., along with Europe, has tacitly acquiesced in the plundering of
Ukraine for most of the decade, in hopes of maintaining the stability of a
crucial buffer state between Russia and the West.
That's precisely where the policy has gone wrong. No one wanted to undermine
Ukrainian independence, but the country's failures were rarely accorded
separate treatment and analysis by policymakers otherwise focused on Russia.
And the principal victims have been the Ukrainian people.
Now Ukraine's weakness is raising doubts in Europe about its reliability as
a potential NATO ally or trade partner, which could have the paradoxical
result of pushing it closer to Moscow anyway.
Whatever happens with ``Kuchmagate,'' the West needs to face up to the
looming implosion of one of Europe's most important countries.
Ukraine, a country the size of France, is crucial to the region's future.
Canada has an important stake there: The ex-Soviet republic is close both in
ethnic ties and political affinity (we were the first major Western nation
to recognize Ukrainian statehood).
Hoping Ukraine's mess will blow away is no longer a policy option.
February 13, 2001
West Needs to Face Scary Prospect of Chaos in Ukraine
Stephen Handelman
STAR COLUMNIST
NEW YORK - A headless corpse. High-level corruption. A grenade attack on a
political opponent.
These ingredients and more - the stuff of a political thriller - have
plunged Ukraine into turmoil over the past three months. And they may soon
have an impact on the fragile East-West equilibrium that has prevailed since
the collapse of communism a decade ago.
Some 5,000 protesters marched through the main boulevard of Kiev this week
calling for the resignation of President Leonid Kuchma. Since December, a
``tent city'' in the capital has been home to demonstrators angered by
alleged government attempts to muzzle the press and, in some cases, to
murder opponents in mafia-style hits.
It began with the September disappearance of a Georgian-born Ukrainian
investigative online journalist named Georgy Gongadze, an outspoken critic
of government corruption.
On Nov. 2, a headless body found in a forest near Kiev was identified by his
wife as Gongadze's.
Later that month, an opposition politician named Oleksandr Moroz released a
bombshell: the tape of a conversation purportedly held between the president
and his chief aides in which they planned the journalist's disappearance.
``Give him to the Chechens,'' Kuchma allegedly told Interior Minister Yuri
Kravchenko in a conversation laced with expletives. ``Drive him out, undress
him, leave him without his pants.''
Moroz, who heads the Ukrainian Socialist Party, says he has other tapes
(obtained from a former security agent now in hiding in Europe) that
implicate the president and his chief aides in a campaign of intimidation
against their critics. ``The methods of those ruling our country are
criminal,'' he claims.
Cynics will say such things go on in neighbouring Russia all the time, so
why get excited? But that's just the point.
Even while Russia was becoming snarled in its post-Communist tangle of
crime, corruption and wild west capitalism, Ukraine seemed the quiet,
reliable model of a transition state.
It was never true, but Ukraine was easy to ignore. Its cautious approach to
a free market and its careful, unspectacular evolution toward democracy
appeared a sharp contrast with the chaos of its giant neighbour.
But Ukraine's tranquility was an illusion. The economy has been steadily
coming apart for several years, with a standard of living falling behind
Russia's.
Continued state control of key industries and enterprises has hampered
development and, just as in Russia, a small group of squabbling oligarchs
connected to the political leadership has earned windfall profits by
cheating the state treasury.
The most egregious case - until now - involved former prime minister Pavlo
Lazarenko.
He's sitting in a San Francisco jail, fighting extradition to Switzerland on
charges including the embezzlement of more than $1 billion (U.S.) siphoned
from natural gas imports from Russia.
Lazarenko has also been implicated in at least three contract murders.
Kuchma insists his efforts to tackle the corruption of previous government
officials, such as Lazarenko, explain why he has been singled out for
attack.
But it will be hard for him to escape the implications of what Ukrainian
opponents are calling ``Kuchmagate.''
How did things get this bad? The West bears part of the blame - for closing
its eyes so long.
The Clinton administration did refuse to see Kuchma's prime minister last
fall until Ukraine could demonstrate that it had ``cleaned up'' its act. But
the U.S., along with Europe, has tacitly acquiesced in the plundering of
Ukraine for most of the decade, in hopes of maintaining the stability of a
crucial buffer state between Russia and the West.
That's precisely where the policy has gone wrong. No one wanted to undermine
Ukrainian independence, but the country's failures were rarely accorded
separate treatment and analysis by policymakers otherwise focused on Russia.
And the principal victims have been the Ukrainian people.
Now Ukraine's weakness is raising doubts in Europe about its reliability as
a potential NATO ally or trade partner, which could have the paradoxical
result of pushing it closer to Moscow anyway.
Whatever happens with ``Kuchmagate,'' the West needs to face up to the
looming implosion of one of Europe's most important countries.
Ukraine, a country the size of France, is crucial to the region's future.
Canada has an important stake there: The ex-Soviet republic is close both in
ethnic ties and political affinity (we were the first major Western nation
to recognize Ukrainian statehood).
Hoping Ukraine's mess will blow away is no longer a policy option.