МАЙДАН - За вільну людину у вільній країні


Архіви Форумів Майдану

Цікаві враження (начебто) учасника переговорів з Газпромом

01/11/2006 | holland
Взято з Google Groups.

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 3, 8:30 am show options

Cost at the Russo-Ukrainian border is c. 85-90 dollars. I have figures back home. Add export duties, and you will get close to a hundred.
Every analyst likes to say that Gazprom is not investing into exploration and that it sits on a mountain of cash. All would be true, if not for the subsidised supplies to half ex Soviet block. That has to end sooner or later.
Yours
AL

-------------------

james beadle
Jan 3, 11:00 am show options

Andrei: Your cost analysis of shipping to Ukraine is interesting, how did
you derive these figures? And did you account for the fact that construction
and shipment costs in Gazprom are generally 50-100% above international
averages?

------------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 3, 12:07 pm show options

We are international lawyers specialising in oil and gas (and extraction sector generally) - we advised on a number of deals involving Gazprom, and we know its price strucrture.
Yours
AL

-------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 3, 10:19 am show options

What drives me mad in this situation is the fact that Russia has nothing to do with it - the gas is being stolen by the Ukrainians!

------------------

hadbroth
Jan 3, 9:51 pm show options

Can you substantiate this? What's your view on the contract between
Gazprom and Naftogaz (text at
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2005/12/22/36935.htm), in particular on
the following piece?

"The Client [Gazprom] shall, annually from 2005 until 2009, supply
gas for Ukraine's needs in lieu of payment for the transit of gas by
the Contractor [Naftogaz] through the territory of Ukraine, at a fixed
price of USD50 per thousand cubic meters." [literally "at a fixed
price of USD50 per thousand cubic meters, which shall not be subject to
change by the Parties."]

-------------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 3, 9:59 pm show options

I saw the text which is purported to be this contract. I cannot comment on it due to my professional client confidentiality restrictions, but it is not the text which was signed last year.
Yours
AL

----------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 4, 8:41 am show options

Apologies, I have not switched on into 2006 yet. I meant the 2004 agreement.
Yours
AL

-------------------------

Tory Torrison
Jan 4, 12:25 pm show options

Gas Attack! The Ukraine Gives Itself Indigestion
By Kirill Pankratov
The Exile

When the current government came to power at the beginning of this year,
like any revolutionaries worth their salt they said and did a lot of really
stupid things. One of them was to put the most rabid nationalists in charge
of economic relations with Russia, particularly on energy issues....

One of these anti-Russian nationalists was then-Deputy Prime Minister for
energy policy Alexiy Ivchenko (since then demoted to a lesser-job as a chief
of the NaftaGas consortium). When he visited Russia for crucial talks back
in March of 2005, he brought with him a Russian-Ukrainian translator. Since
some 95% of Ukrainians speak fluent (if accented) Russian - and those who
don't are overwhelmingly village hicks from Galicia - so the decision to
only speak to his Russian counterpart through a translator had the main
effect of pissing off the counterparty right from the start. But this was
only the beginning. Claiming to "break the Russian shackles" and bring in a
new, more pragmatic era in joint relations, Ivchenko declared that the
Ukraine want to scrap the previous arrangements on gas deliveries, based on
barter trade and reduced prices.

Since the previous agreement, valid until at least 2009, was in fact hugely
favorable to Ukraine, Russians could not believe their luck. "Are you sure
you want to do this?" they asked Ivchenko.

"Of course we do, we're a proud, independent Ukraine," was the essence of
Ivchenko's reply.

"Then so be it, we'll start market-pricing gas exports and transit through
the Ukraine." The details of the new "realistic" terms remained vague and
the issue was shelved - until a couple of months ago, when Gazprom announced
a big price hike for the gas supplies to Ukraine, though still well below
the European prices....

-----------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 4, 12:35 pm show options

I admire the Exile - I was present at some of these March discussions - Exile's summary is somewhat watered down but very precise. Mr. Ivchenko was the first to mention the price of 240 which he allegedly was ready to pay from June onwards.
Miller who was by that time begging Putin to allow him to re-negotiate the supply contracts could not believe his luck.
Yours
AL

---------------------------

IRASTR...@aol.com
Jan 4, 10:24 pm show options

the exile piece is written in a style of paraphrasings stuck in quotation
marks, not literal quotation. even says so at one point. what to make of it
is left to guesswork.

as to the substance, my guess is that Orange Ukrainian government might well
have said that it would be willing to renegotiate the deal, and might well
have made an idealistic statement that Ukraine wants to be independent not
subsidized by Russia. It might also have thrown in some words about rejecting
the bribe Russia gave Ukrainians to try to buy the election.

I would however be surprised if Ukraine simply waived the deal and said
Russia could impose any price it wants. Presumably it anticipated negotiations,
and its goal in negotiations would inevitably end up being what it has spoken
of recently: a price consistent with regional prices for other countries in
similar conditions, without subsidy, but still affordable for the country and
its industries.

A valid waiver would have to be something substantially more than a chance
debater's one-liner -- it would have to be a signed piece of paper waiving the
agreement.

Ira

-------------------------

Liakhov, Andrei
Jan 4, 10:34 pm show options

Ira, be surprised! The Orange Government terminated the agreement in writing in mid .March. Their negotiation style I have seen was so arrogantly amateriush that it would have been laughable if not related to a one of the largest countries in Europe. I was there, you can take it from the horse's mouth. Exile's summury is very exact if somewhat toned down for obvious reasons.
Yours
AL

Відповіді

  • 2006.01.12 | jz99

    гадаю, просто-таки необхідно продовжувати залучати перекладачів

    на перемовинах з Росією. Немає значення, справжня то історія з перекладачем чи ні, показовий сам ефект від неї. Росія вже й Захід намагається залучити до її висміювання — і сама ж на весь світ пошивається в дурні (взагалі цікаво, який у дипломатії протокол щодо робочих мов). Для того, щоб показати "пікантність" ситуації, доводиться Заходу пояснювати, що "some 95% of Ukrainians speak fluent (if accented) Russian", але обходити мовчанням, чому і як так "склалося", бо це вже не так цікаво. Kirill Pankratov так поспішав насмішити англомовну публіку, що навіть не потурбувався правильно поіменувати націоналіста Івченка (Alexiy замість Olexiy), і ніяким чином не пов’язав власне ж уточнення "and those who don't are overwhelmingly village hicks from Galicia" з тим, що Івченко, як націоналіст, може бути саме "village hicks from Galicia", тож для нього вживання рідної мови, котра є державною (офіційною, а отже дипломатично виправданою), може бути природною і звичайною річчю. Кремль не хоче чути української мови?

    Щодо сміховинного аматорства наших переговорників — цілком імовірно. Щодо прагнення першого уряду Ющенка (не уряду Тимошенко, такого не існувало) відмовитися від бартеру, то може, дійсно, це його помилка. Точніше, лише Тимошенко, замутивши цю справу, знала, як її довести до кінця, просто їй не дали цього зробити, не знаю вже, правильно зробили, що не дали, чи ні.
  • 2006.01.12 | Shooter

    Гм...що мені цікаво,

    ...що Івченко хотів, виявляється, 240, а росіяни погодилися на 95... :)

    Що ж хотів Івченко - так це прибрати "бартер", який давав навкологазпромівській братві та братві з "українсього" боку біля 1 млрд чистого прибутку (РУЕ) як і дамоклів меч передачі української ГТС росіянам в 2007 році, як це є вже з білоруською, коли туркменського газу би вже "не було".
    згорнути/розгорнути гілку відповідей
    • 2006.01.12 | holland

      Ви порівнюєте "яблука з персиками"

      Shooter пише:
      > ...що Івченко хотів, виявляється, 240, а росіяни погодилися на 95... :)

      Перша цифра - ціна російського газу, друга - середньозважена ціна усього імпортного газу.

      Росіяни не погодилися на 95, вони успішно отримали 230.
  • 2006.01.12 | BIO

    Re: Цікаві враження (начебто) учасника переговорів з Газпромом

    Оч.интер.
    А инфа про услуги ПГХ там есть ?
    Может что-то конкретное про реалии СЕГ ?
    То же про новый транзит через белорусов и хранилища в Пинских плавнях ?

    Нетути ?

    Сорюшки тада, ошибся постом пойду побираться дальше может
    чего и наколядую до ст. Н.Г.

    Христос с вами, люди вы или трафареты


Copyleft (C) maidan.org.ua - 2000-2019. Сайт розповсюджується згідно GNU Free Documentation License.
Архів пітримує Громадська організація Інформаційний центр "Майдан Моніторинг". E-mail: news@maidan.org.ua