01/20/2009 | Сергій Кабуд

цікаве:
From 2010 Ukraine will pay full European prices, and in return Gazprom will pay a higher rate of around $2.50/1,000 cu m/100 km for Ukraine's transit services.

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Russia to sell gas to Ukraine at $360/1,000 cu m in Q1

http://www.platts.com/Natural%20Gas/Resources/News%20Features/ukraine09/index.xml

January 20, 2009 - Russia's Gazprom will sell gas to Ukraine at a price of $360/1,000 cubic meters in the first quarter of 2009, much more than it had been paying for Russian gas in 2008, Gazprom head Alexei Miller said January 20.

As more details emerged of the deal which ended a standoff between the two countries January 19, Gazprom said it was hopeful that the two countries could avoid a repeat of their near-annual dispute over gas prices in the future.

But this optimism was not shared by independent analysts.

"In the first quarter gas will be provided at a market price formula, and the [base] price is $450/1,000 cu m.

Taking into account the discount, the price [for Ukraine] is equal to $360/1,000 cu m," Miller told Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev in a meeting broadcast by Russian state Vesti TV.

Ukraine paid $179.50/1,000 cu m for its gas supplies from Russia in 2008.

Later in the year the price will follow the recent decline in oil and oil product prices, Miller said.

Ukraine will buy around 40 billion cu m of gas in 2009, Miller said.

In 2008, Ukraine purchased 55 Bcm of gas.

Gazprom's deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said later January 19 that Gazprom expected its average price for sales to Europe in 2009 to be $280/1,000 cu m, with the price for Ukraine to be less than $250/1,000 cu m.

Under the terms of the January 19 agreement Ukraine can expect a 20% discount to the average European price this year, but Medvedev said 2009 was the last year Ukraine would receive cheaper gas than other European customers.

From 2010 Ukraine will pay full European prices, and in return Gazprom will pay a higher rate of around $2.50/1,000 cu m/100 km for Ukraine's transit services.


10-year agreement on supply, transit

The January 19 deal signed between Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz Ukrayiny involved a 10-year gas supply and transit accord, and paved the way not only for gas flows to Ukraine to resume but also onward transit of Russian gas to Europe, the bulk of which had also been stopped by the dispute.

"All the hindrances are removed for resuming gas transit to Europe," Miller said.

Gazprom resumed supplies to Ukraine early January 20 and Gazprom's Medvedev said the flows would January 20 reach the full level of 423 million cu m/day.

Miller also said Gazprom had agreed with Naftogaz that if Ukraine fails to pay for Russian gas, the countries would switch to a prepayment system.

"The contract envisages that ... if we face a non-payment situation, we would automatically switch to the mechanism of 100% prepayment. Then Ukraine will have to pay for a month in advance," he said.

Miller was skeptical that previous problems with Ukraine paying Russia for gas were now a thing of the past.

"We are not to expect that the situation with payments will improve under the price of $360/1,000 cu m," he said, noting that Ukraine had problems with payments when it paid a much lower price of $179.50/1,000 cu m.

His deputy Alexander Medvedev, however, was much more optimistic, telling reporters on a conference call that the dispute "will never occur again."

Medvedev said he had no reason to believe that Ukraine would ever break the new contract, noting that the payment clauses were "very strict."

Medvedev said it was a "shame" that the dispute had involved the prime ministers of the two countries and that he was "disappointed" by the role of the European Union, in its failure to back the idea of an international consortium to help oversee transit, an idea which enjoyed the full backing of its member companies.

EU criticism

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso slammed both Russia and Ukraine for the way they resolved the dispute.

Leaders from the two sides told the EU several times over the two weeks that gas flows would resume shortly, said Barroso, and then nothing happened.

"It's very negative for credibility," Barroso said.

One conclusion from the dispute was that "gas coming from Russia and through Ukraine is not secure," said Barroso.

Independent analysts seemed to agree with the EU stance and remained cautious about the relationships between the two countries in the gas sphere.

"I would prefer to take a cautious stance," said Valery Nesterov, an analyst with Troika-Dialog investment company.

"It is most appropriate for the EU to diversify gas imports, and it gives impetus for Nord Stream," he said.

Both Gazprom and Ukraine's image as reliable gas suppliers deteriorated because of the conflict, agreed Konstantin Cherepanov, an analyst with Moscow-based Kit Finance investment bank.

It is quite possible that Ukraine could come back to the price question within a quarter and try to revise the agreement, Nesterov said, adding that there had been several contradictory statements on future prices.

"They have resolved the dispute in general without going into detail, and these details might be the most difficult," Nesterov said.

No sooner had the two agreed on new accord, than they began to discuss the discount for next year, said Cherepanov.

"The discount for next year might be the subject for a dispute next year," Cherepanov said.

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