02/22/2001 | Broker

The Struggle for Ukraine, 21.02.01

Of all the former Soviet republics to gain independence a decade ago, Ukraine may have started with the most advantages. With a territory the size of France and a population of more than 50 million, it instantly became a country to be reckoned with in Europe; add to that abundant natural resources, a large industrial base and a rich culture and language of its own, and Ukraine seemed sure to thrive outside Moscow's dominion. It joined NATO's Partnership for Peace early on, and President Leonid Kuchma won reelection two years ago by promising to lead the country closer to Western Europe.

Instead, Mr. Kuchma now seems ready to leap into the embrace of Russia's hungry new leader, Vladimir Putin, who has made rebuilding Moscow's power over the former republics a top priority. The reasons are sadly simple. Ukraine has become a sinkhole of political mismanagement and corruption, and Mr. Kuchma himself has been implicated in the brutal murder of a critical journalist. Western governments have responded by properly distancing themselves from the government and demanding an investigation of the murder; the International Monetary Fund, citing economic malfeasance, recently indicated it may suspend loans due to be disbursed next month.

Meanwhile, Mr. Putin has embraced Mr. Kuchma. Last week he traveled to the Ukrainian missile factory that Mr. Kuchma used to manage and signed deals that will connect Ukraine to the Russian electricity grid and create a joint aerospace venture between them. To the delight of Mr. Kuchma, the Russian president ostentatiously dismissed the fact that thousands of protesters have been marching in Kiev to demand the president's resignation. Mr. Putin should be happy, too: In addition to the economic deals, Ukraine recently agreed to full Russian involvement in any NATO exercises held on its territory, as well as closer ties between the Ukrainian and Russian fleets based in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

Ukraine's ability to resist Mr. Kuchma's corrupt maneuvering, and the renewed domination by Moscow that seems likely to come with it, depends on how well its fledgling democratic institutions hold up. So far there are some encouraging signs – thanks to independent media, including the Web site of murdered journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, the largest political demonstrations in Ukraine's decade of independence have taken place during the past two weeks in Kiev. In parliament, where audiotapes connecting Mr. Kuchma to the Gongadze case were first aired in December, a left-to-right coalition has been formed to press for Mr. Kuchma's removal as well as a series of democratic reforms.

The democrats face an uphill struggle; one of their leaders, former deputy prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was arrested last week on corruption charges, only four days after joining the National Salvation Forum. Mr. Kuchma is clearly prepared to embrace extreme measures to stop his opponents; the West they aspire to join must do what it can to support them.

Of all the former Soviet republics to gain independence a decade ago, Ukraine may have started with the most advantages. With a territory the size of France and a population of more than 50 million, it instantly became a country to be reckoned with in Europe; add to that abundant natural resources, a large industrial base and a rich culture and language of its own, and Ukraine seemed sure to thrive outside Moscow's dominion. It joined NATO's Partnership for Peace early on, and President Leonid Kuchma won reelection two years ago by promising to lead the country closer to Western Europe.

Instead, Mr. Kuchma now seems ready to leap into the embrace of Russia's hungry new leader, Vladimir Putin, who has made rebuilding Moscow's power over the former republics a top priority. The reasons are sadly simple. Ukraine has become a sinkhole of political mismanagement and corruption, and Mr. Kuchma himself has been implicated in the brutal murder of a critical journalist. Western governments have responded by properly distancing themselves from the government and demanding an investigation of the murder; the International Monetary Fund, citing economic malfeasance, recently indicated it may suspend loans due to be disbursed next month.

Meanwhile, Mr. Putin has embraced Mr. Kuchma. Last week he traveled to the Ukrainian missile factory that Mr. Kuchma used to manage and signed deals that will connect Ukraine to the Russian electricity grid and create a joint aerospace venture between them. To the delight of Mr. Kuchma, the Russian president ostentatiously dismissed the fact that thousands of protesters have been marching in Kiev to demand the president's resignation. Mr. Putin should be happy, too: In addition to the economic deals, Ukraine recently agreed to full Russian involvement in any NATO exercises held on its territory, as well as closer ties between the Ukrainian and Russian fleets based in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

Ukraine's ability to resist Mr. Kuchma's corrupt maneuvering, and the renewed domination by Moscow that seems likely to come with it, depends on how well its fledgling democratic institutions hold up. So far there are some encouraging signs – thanks to independent media, including the Web site of murdered journalist Heorhiy Gongadze, the largest political demonstrations in Ukraine's decade of independence have taken place during the past two weeks in Kiev. In parliament, where audiotapes connecting Mr. Kuchma to the Gongadze case were first aired in December, a left-to-right coalition has been formed to press for Mr. Kuchma's removal as well as a series of democratic reforms.

The democrats face an uphill struggle; one of their leaders, former deputy prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, was arrested last week on corruption charges, only four days after joining the National Salvation Forum. Mr. Kuchma is clearly prepared to embrace extreme measures to stop his opponents; the West they aspire to join must do what it can to support them.