11/16/2002 | Kostya Poroh

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Kuchma-NATO: Jane's Intelligence Digest


NOVEMBER 06, 2002 FEATURE
JANE'S INTELLIGENCE DIGEST

Kuchma not welcome at NATO

JID has learned that a report by the British-US led international team of experts who visited Ukraine last month to investigate the alleged sale of four Kolchuga radars systems to Iraq in the summer of 2000 will not openly accuse Ukraine of breaching UN sanctions. Instead, the report - to be issued this week - claims it was given 'insufficient evidence' to fully exonerate President Kuchma of breaching UN sanctions.

The report concludes that the Ukrainian authorities have failed to persuade the team that Ukraine did not export Kolchuga systems to Iraq. Both the West and Ukraine agree that a July 2000 meeting did take place at which Kuchma approved the sale. An illicitly made tape recording of the meeting has been authenticated by the FBI. However, the Ukrainian authorities and Western governments disagree on whether the Kolchugas were actually sent to Iraq.

The Ukrainian government insists that it has only sold three Kolchuga radar systems to Ethiopia, but none to Iraq. Western intelligence agencies are currently investigating whether Ethiopia is still in possession of these Kolchugas or if they have been shipped to another final destination.

Ethiopia's main external security threat is Eritrea, which does not have any sizeable air force against which the Kolchuga system would be useful. The Ethiopian defence budget is only approximately US$700 million, meaning the purchase of the system would have consumed around one seventh of the country's total arms and munitions spending.

JID has also learned that US intelligence operatives already had evidence that the Kolchugas were in Iraq before the international team visited Ukraine. This intelligence, together with the FBI authenticated tape recording of the July 2000 meeting, constituted the evidence on which the US publicly accused Ukraine at the end of September of violating UN sanctions against Iraq.

Ukraine's embattled president, Leonid Kuchma, has adopted a novel approach to the US and UN accusations of sanctions busting currently being made. Ukraine initially denied that the July 2000 meeting had taken place and only dropped this claim when the USA announced it had authenticated a tape recording of the meeting in one of the world's top forensic laboratories.

However, the Ukrainian authorities continue to deny that Kuchma's authorisation was acted on.

JID has discovered that the real purpose of the visit of the international team of experts to Ukraine was to collect intelligence on technical aspects of the Kolchuga radar system. With the USA gearing up for possible war with Iraq in early 2003, Washington needs to ensure it possesses air superiority. The highly mobile and easily concealed Kolchugas are believed to be responsible for the downing of an unmanned US drone over Iraq in 2001, the first to be shot down since the 'no fly zone' was created following the Gulf war. In return for providing technical specifications of the Kolchuga radar the US has agreed to not conclude in the report that it had definite proof that the Kolchugas are now in Iraq.

That the US is in possession of concrete proof of Ukrainian sanctions busting to Iraq can be seen in the severity of Washington's accusations against Ukraine, the reduction of US governmental assistance and the pressure applied to the 18 NATO allies not to invite Kuchma to attend the summit scheduled to be held in 21-22 November in Prague.

The NATO-Ukraine 19+1 meeting will be held only at the level of foreign ministers, not of presidents as was originally envisaged prior to the Iraqi arms scandal. No bilateral meeting of US-Ukrainian presidents had been envisaged because Washington had ruled out any such summit until the Ukrainian authorities have resolved the mysterious murder of opposition journalist Georgy Gongadze in autumn 2000.

NATO's public snub to Kuchma is a foreign policy disaster for Ukraine, which since 1995 has been the most active CIS member of NATO's Partnership for

Peace. After Kiev announced its plans in May to seek NATO membership, Ukraine pinned high hopes on the NATO summit to launch a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine. Whether a MAP will be drawn up in Prague now remains doubtful, particularly if Ukraine's foreign minister Anatoly Zlenko is not allowed to attend by Kuchma. This could place Ukraine's plans for future NATO membership in jeopardy.

Meanwhile, Kuchma continues to insist that he will travel to the NATO summit to attend the meeting of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC) which unites 19 NATO members and 27 post-communist and neutral states. Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenka, long unwelcome in Western capitals, has also insisted that he be allowed to attend the EAPC meeting.

JID believes it is doubtful that Kuchma and Lukashenka will be granted visas to attend the EAPC, thereby placing both in the category of pariah leaders. The only major difference is that NATO and the USA still sees Ukraine as geopolitically important and therefore have expressed a desire to continue co-operation with Ukraine while ignoring Kuchma personally.

Kuchma's troubles may only be beginning. Not only is he isolated from the West, where he has not been invited on a diplomatic visit since the so-called 'Kuchmagate' crisis began in November 2000, but the US Congress has now demanded that he be personally investigated on allegations of money laundering. Back in Kiev, the opposition has launched a court case accusing Kuchma of infringing nine counts of the law. With pressure mounting on all fronts, it is becoming more unlikely that he will be able to survive for another two years until the presidential elections scheduled for October 2004.