ANALYSIS: Istanbul parley as diplomatic theater (\)
01/26/2003 | line305b
Jerusalem Post: www.jpost.com
ANALYSIS: Istanbul parley as diplomatic theater
HERB KEINON Jan. 24, 2003
In international relations, countries often initiate diplomatic processes not because they necessarily believe they will bear fruit, but rather to make a statement.
These actions are often a way for countries to go "on record," to make a very public statement, to place a small stone in a larger mosaic still being created. Sometimes these actions are taken without the belief they will result in anything concrete.
The meeting Turkey convened Wednesday in Istanbul to try to avert a war in Iraq a conference attended by the foreign ministers of Syria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan is a case in point.
Undoubtedly the new Turkish leaders in Ankara are aware this conference has little chance of success.
It is hard to believe these foreign ministers meeting in an old Ottoman palace in Istanbul will succeed where the UN Security Council and the massive buildup of US and British forces have failed. It is hard to believe that, as a result of this meeting, Baghdad will begin fully cooperating with the UN arms inspectors and declare it will not develop weapons of mass destruction in the future.
Yet the Turks are plodding ahead. To understand why, one need look no further than the polls in Turkey showing massive opposition to a US war against Iraq.
The Turks need to show their public they are doing everything they can to avoid a war. This is especially important for the new government of Abdullah Gul, a government whose single-party AKP has firm Islamic roots. This party is gingerly navigating between the country's traditional western orientation and the party's own Islamic consciousness.
The convening of this parley is a wink to the Islamic side of AKP's identity. But it is more than a symbolic wink. In order for the Turks to dispatch soldiers abroad or even more importantly to let foreign armies operate in Turkey, they need the approval of parliament.
The AKP controls parliament, and this is an attempt to show the AKP that all efforts to avert a war were exhausted. The Turkish hope, according to Israeli officials, is that this conference will make it easier for the Turkish public, especially the AKP, to digest the presence of tens of thousands of US soldiers on Turkish soil.
But the move also has ramifications for Turkish foreign policy as well.
If at the end of the day the Turks do let huge numbers of US soldiers use Turkish bases, this conference will be the Turkish government's proof to the Arab world that it went the extra mile to prevent this from happening but in the end had no choice.
One diplomatic official said the meeting is also an attempt by the AKP government, which in its first two months in power has been diplomatically hyperactive, to assert itself.
It is no coincidence, the official said, that the meeting is taking place in Istanbul, the capital of the Ottoman Empire, and not in Ankara, modern Turkey's capital. Each of the countries participating, with the exception of Iran, was at one time or another under Ottoman rule. There is a subtle message here Turkey is reasserting itself as a regional dynamo.
ANALYSIS: Istanbul parley as diplomatic theater
HERB KEINON Jan. 24, 2003
In international relations, countries often initiate diplomatic processes not because they necessarily believe they will bear fruit, but rather to make a statement.
These actions are often a way for countries to go "on record," to make a very public statement, to place a small stone in a larger mosaic still being created. Sometimes these actions are taken without the belief they will result in anything concrete.
The meeting Turkey convened Wednesday in Istanbul to try to avert a war in Iraq a conference attended by the foreign ministers of Syria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan is a case in point.
Undoubtedly the new Turkish leaders in Ankara are aware this conference has little chance of success.
It is hard to believe these foreign ministers meeting in an old Ottoman palace in Istanbul will succeed where the UN Security Council and the massive buildup of US and British forces have failed. It is hard to believe that, as a result of this meeting, Baghdad will begin fully cooperating with the UN arms inspectors and declare it will not develop weapons of mass destruction in the future.
Yet the Turks are plodding ahead. To understand why, one need look no further than the polls in Turkey showing massive opposition to a US war against Iraq.
The Turks need to show their public they are doing everything they can to avoid a war. This is especially important for the new government of Abdullah Gul, a government whose single-party AKP has firm Islamic roots. This party is gingerly navigating between the country's traditional western orientation and the party's own Islamic consciousness.
The convening of this parley is a wink to the Islamic side of AKP's identity. But it is more than a symbolic wink. In order for the Turks to dispatch soldiers abroad or even more importantly to let foreign armies operate in Turkey, they need the approval of parliament.
The AKP controls parliament, and this is an attempt to show the AKP that all efforts to avert a war were exhausted. The Turkish hope, according to Israeli officials, is that this conference will make it easier for the Turkish public, especially the AKP, to digest the presence of tens of thousands of US soldiers on Turkish soil.
But the move also has ramifications for Turkish foreign policy as well.
If at the end of the day the Turks do let huge numbers of US soldiers use Turkish bases, this conference will be the Turkish government's proof to the Arab world that it went the extra mile to prevent this from happening but in the end had no choice.
One diplomatic official said the meeting is also an attempt by the AKP government, which in its first two months in power has been diplomatically hyperactive, to assert itself.
It is no coincidence, the official said, that the meeting is taking place in Istanbul, the capital of the Ottoman Empire, and not in Ankara, modern Turkey's capital. Each of the countries participating, with the exception of Iran, was at one time or another under Ottoman rule. There is a subtle message here Turkey is reasserting itself as a regional dynamo.