03/14/2003 | line305b

Интересная статейка - российские компании стремятся занять на внешних рынках. Объемы займов в первые месяцы этого года уже превышают показатели 1997 года - до кризиса. Условия для займов хорошие: высокие доходы от экспорта, хорошее состояние гос.финансов, растущая прозрачность предприятий, высокий спрос на международных рынках на высоко-доходные корпоративные бумаги. Кредитный рейтинг лучших компаний - на уровне ВВ - это несколько ниже, чем рекомендуемый для инвесторов, но если все будет идти так, как до сих пор, то через пару лет скорее всего Россия может достичь и подобного рекомендуемого уровня.

У наблюдателей вызывает сомнения сверх-высокий рост некоторых рынков - более 50% в год - что намекает на вероятность "финансового пузыря", непредсказуемого по поведению, и вполне способного "лопнуть" в стиле 1998 года.

Есть также сомнения в экономической обоснованности многих инвестиций - в конце статьи замечено, что многие инвесторы следуют новой "моде", а не выполняют необходимые исследования инвестиционных условий.

Все же, на фоне подобного пессимизма показатели корпоративной России весьма впечатляют, и должны иметься ввиду странами, которым она приходится соседом, как то нам.. Кстати, одним из последствий "разжижения" рынка и финансовых пузырей является перераспределение ресурсов от менее эффективных их пользователей к более эффективным. Учитывая, что в Украине особенных корпоративных телодвижений подобных российским не наблюдается, т.е. росту эффективности взяться негде, последствиями российского драйва может стать растущее давление на нынешних собственников украинских предприятий (как украинских, так и российских) для рыночного перераспределения их ресурсов...

Кстати, лично мне немного непонятно, почему такой высокий спрос на евро-облигации, если в самой России имеется избыток валюты от экспорта и т.д., и цены на нее должны быть достаточно низкие, условия получения более простые, чем на мировых рынках? Говорю это потому, что непонятно, является евро-погоня российских корпораций экономическим актом - преследование более дешевых, доступных, удобных, производительных, и т.д. ресурсов; или же они сознательно или подсознательно растворяют свои активы в мировых рынках, диверсифицируя собственность и интересы, и минимизируя пространство для политических маневров и политического перераспределения денег и собственности..

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Russian companies line up to issue bonds

By Paivi Munter

FT.com site; Mar 12, 2003


Russian companies are planning to borrow a record amount in the international bond markets this year, spurred on by improvements in both the country's creditworthiness and the transparency of corporate accounts.

Soaring oil prices have bolstered Russia's finances and the government has not had to borrow at all, adding to demand for bonds from corporate borrowers.

Rating agencies report that some 50 Russian companies have sought credit ratings in anticipation of bond issues - more than ever before. But the market's rapid growth has prompted some observers to sound a note of caution.

"The market will continue to develop because that's the only [Russian debt] market that will see new issuance," said Larry Brainard, senior adviser at WestLB. "But whenever a market grows by more than 50 per cent, it's a danger sign - there has to be concern about a bubble being created."

Following BP's landmark deal last month to invest $6.75bn into a new giant producer to be formed with Tyumen Oil Company (TNK), strong demand for Russian debt allowed Gazprom, Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, to increase its bonds to $1.75bn from $1.25bn, making it the biggest launch by an emerging market company.

Total issuance in the first two months of the year reached more than $2bn - roughly two-thirds of the market's volume in 2002 and twice as much as in 1997, the year before Russia's sovereign debt default, according to Dealogic data.

Russian credit spreads have tightened dramatically recently, building on a rally that has made the country's debt the best performing asset for several years.

The yield spread on seven-year bonds issued by Gazprom last October has narrowed by some 90 basis points to about 170bp over the sovereign. The latest bond has also gained.

Russia's sovereign credit ratings are currently two to three notches below investment grade, and the country's narrowing yield spreads have prompted expectations that it might reach the coveted status in the next couple of years.

The highest rating assigned to a Russian corporate is BB- but most are rated several further notches below investment grade.

For the moment, Russian international issuers are almost exclusively commodity producers with hefty hard-currency earnings and thus lower credit risk.

Most potential issuers this year conform to this profile, including oil company Sibneft and diamond producer Alrosa, a would-be market entrant.

A number of financial institutions - such as MDM, Vnesheconombank and Sberbank - are also thought to be considering their options, and many expect the gas monopoly's return before the end of the year.

"There is potentially another $1bn on the table this year," said Robin Evans, head of emerging market debt trading at Commerzbank.

Analysts say the market will face a litmus test when second-tier companies enter the market.

A coming bond issue by holding company Sistema - which has assets in sectors ranging from telecommunications to insurance and media - should provide clues to the market's strength, given that the company's creditworthiness does not measure up to that of energy exporters. Sistema last week appointed Deutsche Bank and ING Barings to advise on an issue, expected to total about $300m.

Once the market matures and issuance spreads to less well-known companies, these are likely to come from the metals industry, utilities and consumer manufacturers, all hungry for capital investment following decades of central planning and under-investment.

Yelena Anankina, senior Russian corporate analyst at Standard & Poor's, said the agency had rated about 50 Russian companies for international markets, compared with just a handful before the 1998 financial crisis.

"Now Russian companies have much better access to international capital markets," Ms Anankina said. "This is not just because of lower sovereign risk. Five years ago few companies were aware of the importance of transparency, and the level of credit culture was very low. Arrears and barter dominated the economy."

Confidence is also reflected in the longer maturities investors are willing to extend to Russian companies. Gazprom started with five-year bonds but now makes issues for 10 years.

However, analysts still have misgivings about transparency at even the top issuers, such as Gazprom. Many large Russian companies were built on sprawling assets previously run by Soviet ministries and their structure is often difficult to penetrate.

Lack of transparency may yet come back to haunt the market if Russia's fundamentals weaken and if supply from other emerging market issuers, such as Turkey and Brazil, starts to grow again.

"There is probably more money seeking opportunities than opportunities to be found," said Mr Brainard of WestLB. "A lot of money isn't coming into this market because they've done their due diligence - taken the Aeroflot flight to Nizhny Tagil - but because it's the fashion."

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