12/07/2004 | Budweiser

THE UKRAINE INSIDER
Vol. 4, No. 5
December 7, 2004

ITEM A.: TIME TO GET CRACKING

With a re-vote in the presidential elections scheduled for December 26 the
government will soon realize, if it has not already, that its best course
of action is to do a repeat of the second round, held November 21, which
the pro-government candidate Viktor Yanukovych won. After all, the
machinery for mass falsifications is already in place in the form of
election commissions, formed or bought off by the regime, local
government, organized crime and law enforcement officials working
hand-in-hand with the experience of two rounds of voting behind them.

For his part, Yushchenko's inability to control the situation on the
ground was staggering. Prior to the first round, leaders from "Our
Ukraine" quoted wildly different figures for the number of observers
mobilized by Yushchenko's campaign. Initially, they said 300,000
observers were ready, then the figure became 180,000. Before the second
round Yushchenko himself quoted a figure of 80,000.

Several days before round two, responding to a telephone call-in complaint
that Yushchenko's Zaporizhya campaign office was dismissive of assistance
offers, Yushchenko's representative MP Mykola Tomenko said on television:
"There is no need to go to the regional campaign offices."

Yushchenko's regional campaign offices in most of Ukraine have become a
by-word for inefficiency and, worst of all, many are working against their
candidate's interests (See the Ukraine Insider, vol. 4, no. 4 from
November 30, 2004).

Even the central campaign headquarters is leaky. After the second round
of voting, one student from Donetsk submitted, confidentially, a detailed
list of specific election violations to Yushchenko's central campaign
headquarters only to find himself harassed by local officials only days
later.

This sad state of affairs is all the more discouraging given the very
favorable conditions which Yushchenko started with. After his removal as
Prime Minister on April 26, 2002, he had unprecedented, high poll ratings.
He had two years in which to prepare for his presidential bid. Best of
all, he has impressive financial support from some of Ukraine's richest
people.

For example, Channel 5, which provides intense exposure for Yushchenko, is
funded to the tune of millions of dollars by Petro Poroshenko, a close
supporter of Yushchenko. Another Yushchenko supporter, Mykola Martynenko,
is in the top ten of Ukraine's richest.

Yet a chronic indecisiveness has plagued Yushchenko's campaign. For two
years the headquarters of Our Ukraine's parliamentary faction, the largest
in the Rada, headed by former Kuchma aide Roman Bessmertny and endowed
with close to a hundred staff in a four-story building, did next to
nothing.

In a belatedly late recognition that all is not right Yushchenko appointed
Oleksandr Zinchenko as his campaign manager four months before election
day. Instead of assuming Bessmertny's post, Zinchenko got himself a
separate, two-story building, which quickly filled up with new staffers.
Earlier, Oleh Rybachuk, an MP among those closest to Yushchenko, had
occupied a separate three-story building styled as the "Office of Viktor
Yushchenko."

As the largest faction in the Rada (or parliament), Our Ukraine receives a
large amount of technical support on the state budget, office space,
equipment, salaries, transportation, communications. This wealth of
resources, which should have been used to support work in parliament and
prepare Yushchenko's bid for the presidency, is run by Vira Ulianchenko,
or "Baba Vira," as she is not so fondly known. Her co-workers claim she
shows up in her office about once a month.

As a result of wasting resources on separate campaign offices regional
representatives have seen few campaign materials. Few apartments in Kyiv
have seen any Yushchenko campaign materials brought to their doors. Worst
of all, massive voting falsifications conducted at the polling station
level have gone unchecked. Thus, following the second round Yushchenko
has been unable to point to a large stack of protocols, video and audio
records of election violations.

Yushchenko's lack of decisiveness was evident during negotiations with
Kuchma and Yanukovych held under the auspices of the EU and the OSCE on
December 1. Yushchenko went in to the meeting with parliament's no
confidence vote in the government in his pocket. At that time even Kuchma
was talking of replacing Prime Minister Yanukovych. Yushchenko came out
of the meeting having given away talks on the so-called "political
reform," which would deprive the post he is about to win of some critical
powers. He also promised to remove pressure on the government in the form
of blocking its office buildings.

The event caused a mini-crisis in the Yushchenko camp. His otherwise
stalwart ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, publicly criticized Yushchenko, saying he
had "failed to consult the Maidan," or Independence Square on which
hundreds of thousands of people are protesting. The "Pora!" youth
organization called for a halt to negotiations and warned that they could
switch allegiance to Yushchenko as leader of the opposition. In their
circles Tymoshenko is more popular as a decisive leader, whose nickname is
"Goddess of the Revolution."

Following this fiasco, instead of focusing on a specific target,
Yushchenko's allies have been all over the map with their demands, some
asking for the Prime Minister's resignation, others targeting the Central
Election Commission, others seeking the removal of separatist-minded
governors.

Yushchenko's choice today is clear. With Kuchma and his entourage
delaying any real changes in the rules for the December 26 vote,
Yushchenko should call their bluff. In order to do so, however, he would
have to bring order to his fragmented, ineffective campaign.

There is no way of avoiding the fact that, if he had an organized campaign
effort, Yushchenko would be President by now. Given his ingrained
inability to be decisive, Yushchenko's only hope now is luck.


(c) Ivan Lozowy