EU must offer a clear path towards Ukraine's membership (/)
01/04/2005 | Englishman
The Economist 01 Jan 2005
After Victor Yushchenko's election victory
IT HAS been a lengthy election process even by American standards. And the loser is still bleating about court challenges. Yet it now seems certain that Victor Yushchenko, the opposition candidate, will be declared the winner of Ukraine's 2004 presidential election. His victory in the re-run on December 26th over the prime minister, Victor Yanukovich, was decisive, and international observers agreed that the ballot was far more honest than the one on November 21st that was later annulled by Ukraine's supreme court.
Mr Yushchenko's win is a huge blow against the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma. It is also a blow against Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, who intervened brazenly in favour of Mr Yanukovich, the proclaimed winner in November (the Kremlin has kept quiet about Mr Yushchenko's victory this week). But more than either, it is a resounding and heartening blow for would-be democrats, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union--not least Russia. Mr Yushchenko rightly declared that, although Ukraine won independence 14 years ago, only now has it won freedom ()see page 25.
What should President-elect Yushchenko do now? His first priority must be to mend fences with his opponents, and with Russia. By the official count, over 44% of voters, mostly in the Russian-speaking south and east, backed Mr Yanukovich. The danger of the country splitting apart can be exaggerated, but it undeniably exists. Russia supplies almost all of Ukraine's energy; its Black Sea fleet is based in Sebastopol, in the Crimea, a region that overwhelmingly backed Mr Yanukovich. In short, Mr Yushchenko must urgently establish good relations with Moscow, despite its support for his opponent and despite rumours of Russian security-service involvement in an attempt to poison him with dioxin last autumn.
He will find this easier to do if he avoids provoking Mr Kuchma and his supporters too openly. One of Mr Yushchenko's appeals to Ukraine's jaded voters was his apparent incorruptibility. It would be right to re-examine the dodgier privatisations of the Kuchma era, but Mr Yushchenko would also be wise to seek reconciliation with his opponents, and not to devote too much effort to raking over the past. He would also be sensible to choose a more conciliatory figure as prime minister than the fiery Yulia Timoshenko, who has spoken in the past about putting Mr Kuchma on trial.
Beating the path to Brussels
Beyond this, Mr Yushchenko's main objective must be to liberalise Ukraine's economy and set it, at long last, on the road to prosperity. His past experience as central-bank governor and, briefly, prime minister should stand him in good stead. But he also needs help from the West, and above all from the European Union, Ukraine's biggest trading partner.
So far Europe and America have done well by Mr Yushchenko, supplying thousands of election monitors, backing civic activists and refusing to accept Mr Yanukovich's "victory" in November. But now that their man--or at least their process--has won, the danger is that Ukraine lapses back into being a faraway country of which they know little. In truth, the West has a vital interest in Mr Yushchenko's success, partly for Ukraine's sake, but also as an example to other ex-Soviet countries. And the best help it can give is economic: aid, of course, but also investment and above all trade opportunities.
That means helping Ukraine join the World Trade Organisation; cutting the EU's high tariffs on steel and farm exports, among the few industries in which Ukraine has competitive producers; and, most of all, putting Ukraine on track towards EU membership. Yet whereas the pre-Christmas EU summit agreed to open membership talks with Turkey next October, it made no moves towards making Ukraine a potential, even if distant, candidate. Now that Mr Yushchenko has won, the EU must offer him a clear path towards membership. A liberal, democratic Ukraine has at least as strong a claim as Turkey does to join the European club.
After Victor Yushchenko's election victory
IT HAS been a lengthy election process even by American standards. And the loser is still bleating about court challenges. Yet it now seems certain that Victor Yushchenko, the opposition candidate, will be declared the winner of Ukraine's 2004 presidential election. His victory in the re-run on December 26th over the prime minister, Victor Yanukovich, was decisive, and international observers agreed that the ballot was far more honest than the one on November 21st that was later annulled by Ukraine's supreme court.
Mr Yushchenko's win is a huge blow against the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma. It is also a blow against Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, who intervened brazenly in favour of Mr Yanukovich, the proclaimed winner in November (the Kremlin has kept quiet about Mr Yushchenko's victory this week). But more than either, it is a resounding and heartening blow for would-be democrats, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union--not least Russia. Mr Yushchenko rightly declared that, although Ukraine won independence 14 years ago, only now has it won freedom ()see page 25.
What should President-elect Yushchenko do now? His first priority must be to mend fences with his opponents, and with Russia. By the official count, over 44% of voters, mostly in the Russian-speaking south and east, backed Mr Yanukovich. The danger of the country splitting apart can be exaggerated, but it undeniably exists. Russia supplies almost all of Ukraine's energy; its Black Sea fleet is based in Sebastopol, in the Crimea, a region that overwhelmingly backed Mr Yanukovich. In short, Mr Yushchenko must urgently establish good relations with Moscow, despite its support for his opponent and despite rumours of Russian security-service involvement in an attempt to poison him with dioxin last autumn.
He will find this easier to do if he avoids provoking Mr Kuchma and his supporters too openly. One of Mr Yushchenko's appeals to Ukraine's jaded voters was his apparent incorruptibility. It would be right to re-examine the dodgier privatisations of the Kuchma era, but Mr Yushchenko would also be wise to seek reconciliation with his opponents, and not to devote too much effort to raking over the past. He would also be sensible to choose a more conciliatory figure as prime minister than the fiery Yulia Timoshenko, who has spoken in the past about putting Mr Kuchma on trial.
Beating the path to Brussels
Beyond this, Mr Yushchenko's main objective must be to liberalise Ukraine's economy and set it, at long last, on the road to prosperity. His past experience as central-bank governor and, briefly, prime minister should stand him in good stead. But he also needs help from the West, and above all from the European Union, Ukraine's biggest trading partner.
So far Europe and America have done well by Mr Yushchenko, supplying thousands of election monitors, backing civic activists and refusing to accept Mr Yanukovich's "victory" in November. But now that their man--or at least their process--has won, the danger is that Ukraine lapses back into being a faraway country of which they know little. In truth, the West has a vital interest in Mr Yushchenko's success, partly for Ukraine's sake, but also as an example to other ex-Soviet countries. And the best help it can give is economic: aid, of course, but also investment and above all trade opportunities.
That means helping Ukraine join the World Trade Organisation; cutting the EU's high tariffs on steel and farm exports, among the few industries in which Ukraine has competitive producers; and, most of all, putting Ukraine on track towards EU membership. Yet whereas the pre-Christmas EU summit agreed to open membership talks with Turkey next October, it made no moves towards making Ukraine a potential, even if distant, candidate. Now that Mr Yushchenko has won, the EU must offer him a clear path towards membership. A liberal, democratic Ukraine has at least as strong a claim as Turkey does to join the European club.