До дискусії: 1) "Велика коаліція, спасіння України" (АНГЛ!)
03/09/2006 | Stefan Seitz
Grand Coalition: Ukraine’s Salvation
Mar 08 2006, 11:10
If Ukraine is to get out of its political and economic mess, the three major political leaders in the country – President Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Donetsk-based business leader Renat Akhmetov, need to think “outside the boxes” of their selfish associates and form the new Parliament and Cabinet via a Grand Coalition.
The Orange Coalition parties will not have enough votes to form a majority in Parliament and elect a Cabinet without taking in Oleksandr Moroz’ Socialists and Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s list. If they take in these political camps, the majority will not be stable and homogeneous in strategic policies. Their presence in a coalition will prevent economic and governmental reforms needed in agriculture, health, education, taxes, etc. The Socialists would block speedy privatization of most state enterprises that desperately need foreign capital and know-how required to create jobs and survive in this new era of global competition, and would muddle foreign and national security policies.
A dual alliance between the Akhmetov-controlled Regions of Ukraine and Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine or Tymoshenko’s party would be fatal for either of the Orange parties. Orange voters would be aghast and outraged if either party joined Regions alone and left the other Orange branch outside. Moreover, support for Ukraine from the United States and Europe would rapidly cool.
While Regions members operate closely with Our Ukraine’s financial clan members, Our Ukraine’s democratic reform plurality would rebel before the end of 2006 if they were trapped in a coalition of majority Regions members. Such an uprising would collapse Parliament’s majority and Cabinet.
Moreover, leaving the talented Yulia Tymoshenko in opposition would be suicide.
An embittered, rejected woman with brains and clever one-liners would chop them all to pieces. A consideration of these and other factors leads to several conclusions:
A. Ukraine needs Parliament and Cabinet stability for 4-5 years in order to rapidly grow its economy, create millions of new jobs, raise living standards, and secure the independence of Ukraine from preying neighbors. Ukraine can not survive if it has further turnover in Cabinets and continued mismanagement, inefficiency, and large-scale corruption in leading government circles.
B. Akhmetov needs Euro-Atlantic capital, markets, and respectability if he wishes to emerge as an admired and elected national leader. He is using Euro-U.S. business experts to create models of efficiency and transparency. He is clearly interested in separating his businesses and himself from a controversial past, hoping to take Systems Capital Management, his primary business holding, and other companies, public on the London and New York Stock Exchanges.
C. Yushchenko needs a stable Parliament and Cabinet that will sustain and protect him for the rest of his term, lest the Presidency become quite ineffective or impeached.
D. Tymoshenko, the best communicator in national politics, needs a position where she has a chance to prove herself fairly, free of back-stabbing allies.
A woman in a “safe marriage” can be most cooperative, stable and very helpful.
Critics justly say the Regions Party includes some unsavory persons, but Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc lists don’t have many virgins either.
Akhmetov would become the new “Renaissance Man” to lead Ukraine out of chaos and into a progressive future by forming a center-right “Grand Patriotic Coalition” of some 330 members from Regions, Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party, and Pora/Reforms & Order, assuming the latter passes the three percent barrier.
Such a teaming would, of course, include policy and personnel concessions, including an end to any further East-West tensions, separatism and language issues. A gentlemen’s agreement forgiving financial transgressions and improper privatizations would be necessary. This de-facto amnesty would not serve true justice as Tymoshenko has called for, but it would serve peaceful reconciliation, if accompanied by the following: Repealing the October 2005 law granting immunity from criminal prosecution to some 200,000 local officials; and repealing the two Constitutional sections which give criminal immunity to all Parliament members and Judges.
Putting the past behind us, but making every citizen obey the laws and pay their full taxes from hereon forward, would gain public and international admiration and unite a stable super-majority in Parliament that can implement needed reforms. Reforming the corruption-ridden Judiciary, by implementing testing for judges and replacing incompetent judges must be included in the package.
Such an agreement should also include ending the moratorium on sale and purchase of agricultural lands, and selling off almost all state businesses and factories. The cash raised needs to be used to build infrastructure, communal utilities and housing throughout Ukraine, creating tens of thousands of new jobs. Privatization would not only weed out corruption in state-owned enterprises, it would also bring in billions to revamp these businesses and boost tax revenues.
The coalition agreement would have to state that while Ukraine will always have significant trade and cultural relations with countries to the east, the country’s future lies in revamping its systems to Euro-Atlantic standards. The agreement would obviate a referendum on Constitutional change implemented in December 2004, while advancing other needed constitutional amendments and laws.
If Akhmetov can get the Regions of Ukraine bloc to back such a package deal, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko would have to agree and all their reputations would soar. A Grand National Coalition would then look like this:
President: Yushchenko, supported by stable Parliament and Cabinet for 4 more years.
Premier: Tymoshenko or a Regions of Ukraine choice, with either surrounded by coalition Ministers.
Parliament Speaker: a Regions of Ukraine choice or Tymoshenko, with Our Ukraine leader Mykola Katerynchuk as her 1st deputy.
Bingo! Ukraine’s economy would take off with a regionally and politically balanced Cabinet of professionals operating stably for several years to the next elections. The public will be pleased, business and international investors enthralled, and Russia and Euro-Americans and world media will be willing to work with a stable country.
Hon. Dr. John B. Conlan, is former U.S. Congressman, a long-time investment advisor living in Kyiv, and well-versed in Ukraine politics.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/oped/23992/
Mar 08 2006, 11:10
If Ukraine is to get out of its political and economic mess, the three major political leaders in the country – President Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Donetsk-based business leader Renat Akhmetov, need to think “outside the boxes” of their selfish associates and form the new Parliament and Cabinet via a Grand Coalition.
The Orange Coalition parties will not have enough votes to form a majority in Parliament and elect a Cabinet without taking in Oleksandr Moroz’ Socialists and Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s list. If they take in these political camps, the majority will not be stable and homogeneous in strategic policies. Their presence in a coalition will prevent economic and governmental reforms needed in agriculture, health, education, taxes, etc. The Socialists would block speedy privatization of most state enterprises that desperately need foreign capital and know-how required to create jobs and survive in this new era of global competition, and would muddle foreign and national security policies.
A dual alliance between the Akhmetov-controlled Regions of Ukraine and Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine or Tymoshenko’s party would be fatal for either of the Orange parties. Orange voters would be aghast and outraged if either party joined Regions alone and left the other Orange branch outside. Moreover, support for Ukraine from the United States and Europe would rapidly cool.
While Regions members operate closely with Our Ukraine’s financial clan members, Our Ukraine’s democratic reform plurality would rebel before the end of 2006 if they were trapped in a coalition of majority Regions members. Such an uprising would collapse Parliament’s majority and Cabinet.
Moreover, leaving the talented Yulia Tymoshenko in opposition would be suicide.
An embittered, rejected woman with brains and clever one-liners would chop them all to pieces. A consideration of these and other factors leads to several conclusions:
A. Ukraine needs Parliament and Cabinet stability for 4-5 years in order to rapidly grow its economy, create millions of new jobs, raise living standards, and secure the independence of Ukraine from preying neighbors. Ukraine can not survive if it has further turnover in Cabinets and continued mismanagement, inefficiency, and large-scale corruption in leading government circles.
B. Akhmetov needs Euro-Atlantic capital, markets, and respectability if he wishes to emerge as an admired and elected national leader. He is using Euro-U.S. business experts to create models of efficiency and transparency. He is clearly interested in separating his businesses and himself from a controversial past, hoping to take Systems Capital Management, his primary business holding, and other companies, public on the London and New York Stock Exchanges.
C. Yushchenko needs a stable Parliament and Cabinet that will sustain and protect him for the rest of his term, lest the Presidency become quite ineffective or impeached.
D. Tymoshenko, the best communicator in national politics, needs a position where she has a chance to prove herself fairly, free of back-stabbing allies.
A woman in a “safe marriage” can be most cooperative, stable and very helpful.
Critics justly say the Regions Party includes some unsavory persons, but Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc lists don’t have many virgins either.
Akhmetov would become the new “Renaissance Man” to lead Ukraine out of chaos and into a progressive future by forming a center-right “Grand Patriotic Coalition” of some 330 members from Regions, Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party, and Pora/Reforms & Order, assuming the latter passes the three percent barrier.
Such a teaming would, of course, include policy and personnel concessions, including an end to any further East-West tensions, separatism and language issues. A gentlemen’s agreement forgiving financial transgressions and improper privatizations would be necessary. This de-facto amnesty would not serve true justice as Tymoshenko has called for, but it would serve peaceful reconciliation, if accompanied by the following: Repealing the October 2005 law granting immunity from criminal prosecution to some 200,000 local officials; and repealing the two Constitutional sections which give criminal immunity to all Parliament members and Judges.
Putting the past behind us, but making every citizen obey the laws and pay their full taxes from hereon forward, would gain public and international admiration and unite a stable super-majority in Parliament that can implement needed reforms. Reforming the corruption-ridden Judiciary, by implementing testing for judges and replacing incompetent judges must be included in the package.
Such an agreement should also include ending the moratorium on sale and purchase of agricultural lands, and selling off almost all state businesses and factories. The cash raised needs to be used to build infrastructure, communal utilities and housing throughout Ukraine, creating tens of thousands of new jobs. Privatization would not only weed out corruption in state-owned enterprises, it would also bring in billions to revamp these businesses and boost tax revenues.
The coalition agreement would have to state that while Ukraine will always have significant trade and cultural relations with countries to the east, the country’s future lies in revamping its systems to Euro-Atlantic standards. The agreement would obviate a referendum on Constitutional change implemented in December 2004, while advancing other needed constitutional amendments and laws.
If Akhmetov can get the Regions of Ukraine bloc to back such a package deal, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko would have to agree and all their reputations would soar. A Grand National Coalition would then look like this:
President: Yushchenko, supported by stable Parliament and Cabinet for 4 more years.
Premier: Tymoshenko or a Regions of Ukraine choice, with either surrounded by coalition Ministers.
Parliament Speaker: a Regions of Ukraine choice or Tymoshenko, with Our Ukraine leader Mykola Katerynchuk as her 1st deputy.
Bingo! Ukraine’s economy would take off with a regionally and politically balanced Cabinet of professionals operating stably for several years to the next elections. The public will be pleased, business and international investors enthralled, and Russia and Euro-Americans and world media will be willing to work with a stable country.
Hon. Dr. John B. Conlan, is former U.S. Congressman, a long-time investment advisor living in Kyiv, and well-versed in Ukraine politics.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/oped/23992/
Відповіді
2006.03.09 | Stefan Seitz
До дискусії: 2) "Рухаючись вперед" (едіторіал Київ Пост) (АНГЛ!)
Moving forwardMar 08 2006, 11:17
It may be painful for Orange and Blue activists, but it seems that Ukraine’s top political parties really need to put their personal interests and differences aside to form a large coalition after this month’s parliamentary elections. For the good of the country, that is …
Looking back to last year’s so-called Orange Revolution, this seems impossible. We all remember how the political camps of now President Viktor Yushchenko and then ally Yulia Tymoshenko rallied massive street protests against election fraud which suggested that Regions of Ukraine Party leader Viktor Yanukovych won the presidency.
But the reality is that the political spectrum has not changed much a year-and-a-half later. Yanukovych’s Regions bloc still has strong support in the Russian-speaking eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, while Yushchenko and Tymoshenko retain strong bases in the west and center of the country.
Even if you put aside the bitter conflict between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, political polls suggest that their blocs will not muster enough votes to establish a solid majority that would ensure stability for the new government and guarantee that legislation for badly needed reforms is passed.
But if they form a coalition with Yanukovych, not only will they have a solid 300 seats in parliament, which is equivalent to a constitutional vote, they would also represent the interests of a majority of voters across all of Ukraine.
Yes, they have differing views and interests on many issues, but reaching peaceful compromise between competing political forces with different views for the sake of its citizens is what democracy is all about.
As bitter as this sounds there doesn’t seem to be a better option, as a hairline majority that would exclude one of the blocs is likely to collapse within months. This process could repeat itself several times, until the next elections, which, by the way, are several years away.
If these three largest of blocs unite to form a stable coalition, they will have ample time to pass badly needed reforms within the next several election-free years. This would be a victory for all Ukrainians, be they Orange or Blue.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/editorial/
2006.03.09 | Пані
Схоже це офіційна американська позиція...
Бо те саме сьогодні озвучив Хербст. Йорпст!!!!http://unian.net/ukr/news/news-110160.html
Щодо майбутнього складу українського уряду, то Дж.ГЕРБСТ заявив, що США готові працювати із будь-яким урядом. Посол припустив, що майбутній уряд може складатися із представників Блоку Юлії Тимошенко, „Нашої України” та Партії регіонів.
2006.03.09 | Stefan Seitz
Ні, не позиція уряду
> Щодо майбутнього складу українського уряду, то Дж.ГЕРБСТ заявив, що США готові працювати із будь-яким урядом.Це так саме, як і 2004 року.
2006.03.09 | Пані
Ще раз читай
Stefan Seitz пише:> > Щодо майбутнього складу українського уряду, то Дж.ГЕРБСТ заявив, що США готові працювати із будь-яким урядом.
>
> Це так саме, як і 2004 року.
Ти оминув суть
Посол припустив, що майбутній уряд може складатися із представників Блоку Юлії Тимошенко, „Нашої України” та Партії регіонів.
Щось крім американців цього більше ніхто не припускає. Я розумію, що не хочеться вірити в погане, але... я припускаю, що це дійсно офіційна позиція.
2006.03.09 | damoradan
Нет, Чейни и Конди - не идиоты (-)
2006.03.09 | mirgor
Дуже цікаво
>Щодо майбутнього складу українського уряду, то Дж.ГЕРБСТ заявив, що США готові працювати із будь-яким урядом. Посол припустив, що майбутній уряд може складатися із представників Блоку Юлії Тимошенко, „Нашої України” та Партії регіонів. Стосовно блоку Наталії ВІТРЕНКО “Народна опозиція” Дж. ГЕРБСТ висловив впевненість, що ця сила не здолає навіть тривідсоткового бар’єру.Вітренко дійсно не пройде, росіяни почали фінансово сприяти зеленим, хай краще зелені, чим конотопська відьма.
А ось, що до з представників БЮТ+НУ+ПР - уряд, то де він подів Мороза та Литвина, невже Мороз буде в оппозиції?
2006.03.09 | damoradan
Его Превосходительство конгрессмен жжет!!!
Stefan Seitz пише:> Grand Coalition: Ukraine’s Salvation
> Mar 08 2006, 11:10
>
> If Ukraine is to get out of its political and economic mess, the three major political leaders in the country – President Viktor Yushchenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Donetsk-based business leader Renat Akhmetov, need to think “outside the boxes” of their selfish associates and form the new Parliament and Cabinet via a Grand Coalition.
>
> The Orange Coalition parties will not have enough votes to form a majority in Parliament and elect a Cabinet without taking in Oleksandr Moroz’ Socialists and Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s list. If they take in these political camps, the majority will not be stable and homogeneous in strategic policies. Their presence in a coalition will prevent economic and governmental reforms needed in agriculture, health, education, taxes, etc. The Socialists would block speedy privatization of most state enterprises that desperately need foreign capital and know-how required to create jobs and survive in this new era of global competition, and would muddle foreign and national security policies.
Ну что сказать: коалиция - да, это всегда компромисс. Все зависит от его величины.
>
> A dual alliance between the Akhmetov-controlled Regions of Ukraine and Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine or Tymoshenko’s party would be fatal for either of the Orange parties. Orange voters would be aghast and outraged if either party joined Regions alone and left the other Orange branch outside. Moreover, support for Ukraine from the United States and Europe would rapidly cool.
>
> While Regions members operate closely with Our Ukraine’s financial clan members, Our Ukraine’s democratic reform plurality would rebel before the end of 2006 if they were trapped in a coalition of majority Regions members. Such an uprising would collapse Parliament’s majority and Cabinet.
Забыл сказать одно: в ПР будет точно такое же восстание, и точно такое же разочарование их избирателей.
>
> Moreover, leaving the talented Yulia Tymoshenko in opposition would be suicide.
>
> An embittered, rejected woman with brains and clever one-liners would chop them all to pieces.
Вот мы и добрались до сути вопроса: бойтесь Юлю, она умнее вас всех!
A consideration of these and other factors leads to several conclusions:
>
> A. Ukraine needs Parliament and Cabinet stability for 4-5 years in order to rapidly grow its economy, create millions of new jobs, raise living standards, and secure the independence of Ukraine from preying neighbors. Ukraine can not survive if it has further turnover in Cabinets and continued mismanagement, inefficiency, and large-scale corruption in leading government circles.
Все свалено в кучу. Я понимаю зачем "стабильность" г-ну Конлану и его клиентам - так легче решать вопросы. А нации стабильность не нужна, если это стабильность гниющего болота.
>
> B. Akhmetov needs Euro-Atlantic capital, markets, and respectability if he wishes to emerge as an admired and elected national leader. He is using Euro-U.S. business experts to create models of efficiency and transparency. He is clearly interested in separating his businesses and himself from a controversial past, hoping to take Systems Capital Management, his primary business holding, and other companies, public on the London and New York Stock Exchanges.
Ну и пусть себе все это делает, кто ему мешает. Наоборот, его присутствие в парламенте может отнять ценное время от более важных задач построения "прозрачности и эффективности, отделенных от "противоречивого" (по-моему, как раз очень однозначного) прошлого".
>
> C. Yushchenko needs a stable Parliament and Cabinet that will sustain and protect him for the rest of his term, lest the Presidency become quite ineffective or impeached.
Это да, вот ему нужно больше, чем остальным.
>
> D. Tymoshenko, the best communicator in national politics, needs a position where she has a chance to prove herself fairly, free of back-stabbing allies.
За нее не беспокойтесь, она себе трибуну найдет.
>
> A woman in a “safe marriage” can be most cooperative, stable and very helpful.
А что, мужик в "защищенном браке" становится деструктивным?
>
> Critics justly say the Regions Party includes some unsavory persons, but Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko’s Byut bloc lists don’t have many virgins either.
Да я бы сказал, вообще ни одной девственницы нет.
>
> Akhmetov would become the new “Renaissance Man” to lead Ukraine out of chaos and into a progressive future by forming a center-right “Grand Patriotic Coalition” of some 330 members from Regions, Our Ukraine, Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party, and Pora/Reforms & Order, assuming the latter passes the three percent barrier.
Renaissance Man - это человек фонда "Відродження"?
>
> Such a teaming would, of course, include policy and personnel concessions, including an end to any further East-West tensions, separatism and language issues. A gentlemen’s agreement forgiving financial transgressions and improper privatizations would be necessary. This de-facto amnesty would not serve true justice as Tymoshenko has called for, but it would serve peaceful reconciliation, if accompanied by the following: Repealing the October 2005 law granting immunity from criminal prosecution to some 200,000 local officials; and repealing the two Constitutional sections which give criminal immunity to all Parliament members and Judges.
>
> Putting the past behind us, but making every citizen obey the laws and pay their full taxes from hereon forward, would gain public and international admiration and unite a stable super-majority in Parliament that can implement needed reforms. Reforming the corruption-ridden Judiciary, by implementing testing for judges and replacing incompetent judges must be included in the package.
Я тоже в этом уверен: Ахметов и ПР идут в парламент как раз для того, чтобы начать платить налоги.
>
> Such an agreement should also include ending the moratorium on sale and purchase of agricultural lands, and selling off almost all state businesses and factories. The cash raised needs to be used to build infrastructure, communal utilities and housing throughout Ukraine, creating tens of thousands of new jobs. Privatization would not only weed out corruption in state-owned enterprises, it would also bring in billions to revamp these businesses and boost tax revenues.
Вот-вот, еще и затем, чтобы обеспечить прозрачные условия приватизации для клиентов г-на Конлана.
>
> The coalition agreement would have to state that while Ukraine will always have significant trade and cultural relations with countries to the east, the country’s future lies in revamping its systems to Euro-Atlantic standards. The agreement would obviate a referendum on Constitutional change implemented in December 2004, while advancing other needed constitutional amendments and laws.
>
> If Akhmetov can get the Regions of Ukraine bloc to back such a package deal, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko would have to agree and all their reputations would soar. A Grand National Coalition would then look like this:
>
> President: Yushchenko, supported by stable Parliament and Cabinet for 4 more years.
>
> Premier: Tymoshenko or a Regions of Ukraine choice, with either surrounded by coalition Ministers.
>
> Parliament Speaker: a Regions of Ukraine choice or Tymoshenko, with Our Ukraine leader Mykola Katerynchuk as her 1st deputy.
>
> Bingo!
Вот именно, в казино нужно меньше играть, да в Ривер Паласе по девкам шляться за деньги клиентов. Тогда, глядишь, и поймешь, в какой стране живешь.
Ukraine’s economy would take off with a regionally and politically balanced Cabinet of professionals operating stably for several years to the next elections. The public will be pleased, business and international investors enthralled,
Вот с этого надо было начинать.
and Russia and Euro-Americans and world media will be willing to work with a stable country.
>
> Hon. Dr. John B. Conlan, is former U.S. Congressman, a long-time investment advisor living in Kyiv, and well-versed in Ukraine politics.
>
> http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/oped/23992/