10/25/2008 | Пан Коцький

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477537461162733.html

Дуже цікаві цифри наведені в цій статті. Наприклад, за два місяці з гаком валютні резерви РФ впали на $85 млрд (з $600 млрд до $515 млрд), з яких на $15 млрд лише за цей тиждень.

5-річний CDS на Російську Федерацію за один місяць виріс у 4 рази, з 253 bp до 1233 bp.

До речі, (цього немає в цій статті, це я прочитав деинде), за оцінками деяких фахівців, валютні резерви РФ можуть скінчитись до кінця 2009 року, припускаючи, що середня ціна на нафту буде близько $60 за барель у наступному році.


Ruble's Fall Puts Russia on Defense Amid Crisis
By ALAN CULLISON and GREGORY L. WHITE

MOSCOW -- Russia's currency fell to a new two-year low despite billions being spent by Moscow to prop it up, and the country's fast-shrinking mountains of reserves and oil revenues threatened to reduce its credit rating, a key marker of its recent resurgence.

The new wave of problems -- coming on top of a stock market fall of 70% from its May peak -- highlights how quickly the global financial crisis has reversed Russia's fortunes. Worried about the turmoil, Russians have hurriedly taken to converting their ruble savings into dollars and euros, driving street exchange rates even lower than the official one.

Russia's surging economic growth had fueled the Kremlin's increasingly assertive stance -- against what it called an overly expansive U.S -- in global politics, energy policy and even its military move into neighboring Georgia.

But in a matter of weeks, the financial turmoil has altered the architecture of Russia's economy. It has forced some of the country's mightiest industrial companies and tycoons to sell off assets and seek bailouts, and thrown a shadow over the finances of the government itself.

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves fell by $15 billion last week alone, its central bank said Thursday, to $515.7 billion from a total that had neared $600 billion in early August. This week's rate of decline would drain it by an additional $150 billion if not slowed by the end of the year, and an official from one major Western bank predicted the central bank will spend even more this week. Another $70 billion is promised from the reserves to a bailout for Russia's financial sector.

With the reserves falling, the cost of insuring Russia's sovereign debt against default has hit records, with credit-default swaps now trading at distressed levels -- above 1,000 basis points, meaning it can cost at least half the amount of the debt to insure it for five years, which is four times what it cost a month ago.

Some Western bankers say their Russian counterparts are cutting back cross-border lending in rubles to stem the outward flow of capital. Top central bank officials called in several heads of Western banks in Moscow last weekend to complain that they were sending rubles injected by the central bank out of the country, according to the Western bank official, who was briefed on the session. A central bank spokesman declined to comment.

A deeper fall in the ruble would be a serious blow to the reputation of Vladimir Putin, who counts a stable currency as one of his crowning achievements since he came to power eight years ago. Millions of Russians saw their savings wiped out by a collapse of the currency with the fall of the Soviet Union, and former President Boris Yeltsin's popularity was all but wiped out when the ruble collapsed again in the Russian financial crisis of 1998 after Mr. Yeltsin promised no devaluation. With past collapses still vivid in the minds of many, analysts say the main pressure on the ruble now is coming from nervous Russians looking for an exit.

On Thursday, the central bank said it would raise interest rates on deposits. The central bank also has taken a series of steps in recent days to make it harder for investors to speculate against the ruble. The Kremlin this week also began buying shares to support the stock market, traders and officials said.

But the slides have continued. The market ended down more than 4% Thursday, while the ruble -- down 2.2% against the dollar this week and 14% since its mid-July peak -- on Thursday slipped again to its lowest in two years, down 0.3% in New York trading.

"They're going to have to do something because nothing is working," said the Western banker. Vladimir Gamza, first vice president at the Association of Regional Banks, said "panicked demand for dollars" was continuing to hurt the ruble.

The drain on Kremlin cash could constrain the government in various ways. Moscow has previously quelled public unrest with government spending, such as in 2005 when it sparked protests trying to curtail social benefits -- and ended up raising pensions and wages, ballooning the federal budget. Russia gets roughly half its budget revenue from oil, so spending will likely have to come down for the first time in years.

Meanwhile, the long rise in world oil and gas prices funneled enormous revenues into the hands of a few business behemoths that Moscow has gradually asserted more control over, bringing more wealth into state hands. Now some of the big energy companies particularly could be strapped for funds. And among the hardest hit in the credit crunch have been Russian tycoons, some closely connected to the government, who borrowed heavily from Western banks on expansion drives and now are seeing their financial empires buckle. One of those, metals magnate Oleg Deripaska, earlier this month dumped his stakes in German construction giant Hochtief, and the Canadian auto parts maker, Magna. Other oligarchs are expected to announce similar sales as they are squeezed by creditors.

When ratings agencies awarded Russia investment-grade status four years ago, Vladimir Putin hailed the move. On Thursday Standard & Poor's Corp. warned it may send Russia back down again, to barely investment-grade status, partly because the rising cost of the Kremlin's financial-sector bailout could strain its once-bulletproof finances. The government has gradually upped its bailout pledges to more than $200 billion, including the $70 billion from the reserves. S&P said Thursday it feared the package could wind up costing much more. (Всі підкреслення мої, ПК)

In contrast, Moody's Investors Service Thursday reaffirmed its positive outlooks on Russia's key debt and foreign-currency-deposit ratings, saying a combination of "ample financial buffers and determined policy measures" are enough to overcome the credit crunch. Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its stable outlook on Russia's ratings on Wednesday, but said the crisis has exposed its financial vulnerability. Some analysts say the selling will subside along with the panic in international markets, and that Russia's reserves are ample to weather the storm.

President Dmitry Medvedev devoted his video-blog entry on the Kremlin's Web site Thursday to the financial crisis, saying Russia could avoid the economic damage other countries have suffered from the crisis. "I will tell you honestly, Russia has not yet been caught in this whirlpool and has the opportunity to escape it," Mr. Medvedev said, adding that he plans to accelerate economic reforms so Russia emerges stronger. (Як кажуть гамериканці, he must have been drinking lots of 'kool-aid', або, можливо, він просто намагається зберегти "хорошую міну прі плохой іґрє" - ПК)

With its rainy-day fund of more than half a trillion dollars saved up from its oil and gas revenues in recent years, the Kremlin has repeatedly sought to portray Russia as better protected than most countries from the global storm.

When the credit crunch hit emerging markets in late summer, the Kremlin first predicted that the government's sound finances would make it a safe haven for investors. But Russia's private sector turned out to be highly leveraged -- with its banks even more leveraged than many European banks -- and the stock market was hit by forced selling as banks and tycoons scrambled to raise cash to meet margin calls.

Officials have tried to stem the market rout by repeatedly closing Moscow's two stock exchanges, but selling has continued. Meanwhile, the sharp drop in oil prices in the past few weeks, reaching levels where Russia's budget and trade balance could fall into deficits, has raised fears about how long the huge cash reserve will last.

Russia has in the past few days been awash in rumors of a devaluation of the ruble. Worried the selling could turn to a stampede, government officials have issued a flurry of denials, while some commercial banks have begun to limit the amount of foreign currency they sell at exchange points.

If the selling pressure continues, Russia will have to choose between imposing exchange controls or letting the currency drop, analysts say. The central bank may be more likely to re-impose exchange controls: Letting the ruble drop sharply would be politically difficult because the Kremlin has so far categorically refused to consider it. Moscow in previous years touted the ruble's rise against the dollar as a sign of Russian resurgence and U.S. decline.

"They made the mistake of confusing high oil prices with the genius of their economic management," said Rory MacFarquhar, managing director with Goldman Sachs in Moscow.

Kremlin officials and state-run media have stressed that the U.S. is the epicenter of the financial crisis, and Russia's financial system is fundamentally sound. Some Russians say they believe the crisis was manufactured to undermine Russia's greatness in the same way the West undermined the Soviet Union.

Economists also are warning of a sharp economic slowdown in Russia, which has enjoyed growth as high as 8% in recent years. Next year, that figure could be below 4%, according to some economists, and could fall to zero if oil prices fall to $50 or below and remain there.

—Daria Solovieva, Lidia Kelly and Clare Connaghan contributed to this article.