Огляд геополітичної ситуації в Україні і фактору 'тимошенко' від досвідченого діпломата. л,т,en
03/10/2012 | zdiplok
Напрочуд високий рівень розуміння. Видно що людина працювала останні десятиліття навколо СССР-СОВКА і розуміє навіть що саме і як в Помаранчову революцію виграв сам Черномирдін, топто совок.
Ukraine scores own goal for Russia By M K Bhadrakumar
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included:
the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/MJ13Ag03.html
Along the midriff of Eurasia, an engrossing battle of wits may have begun
that could phenomenally transform the post-Soviet space.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's recent call for forming a Eurasian
Union now seems more like a prescient call of the bugle
The seven-year sentence handed down on Tuesday to Yulia Tymoshenko, the
former prime minister of Ukraine, by the district court in Kiev holds the
potential to become a turning point in post-Soviet politics.
Ukraine has always been the great fault line in Eurasian politics.
The "Orange" revolution of 2005 made that abundantly clear.
How the endgame over the demise of the "Orange" revolution plays out in the
coming months will determine a host of issues, which include:
- Russia's integration processes in the post-Soviet space and
- the surge of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the territories of the former Soviet
Union.
Tymoshenko has been found guilty of misusing her office as prime minister
in negotiating Ukraine's January 2009 gas deal with Russia, causing the
country an estimated loss of US $200 million. Judge Rodion Kireyev said,
"In January 2009, Tymoshenko ... exercising the duties of prime minister
... used her powers for criminal ends and, acting deliberately, carried out
actions ... which led to serious consequences."
The 51-year-old former prime minister has been ordered to pay the damages
caused to the state and debarred from holding public office for three years
after completion of her seven-year prison term.
But Tymoshenko is no push-over.
Her trademark is her singular lack of any sense of moderation and that she
never ever settles for a back seat.
She has cried out that the trial is a political vendetta by the regime of
President Viktor Yanukovich, which she promptly compared with Josef
Stalin's Soviet Union.
She also lost no time shrewdly injecting a heavy dose of geopolitics into
her case: "This is an authoritarian regime that is distancing Ukraine from
Europe, while using European rhetoric."
Her strident words have found resonance in Western capitals. The European
Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton reacted within hours of the
Kiev verdict: "The way the Ukrainian authorities will generally respect
universal values and the rule of law, and specifically how they will handle
these cases, risks having profound implications for the EU-Ukraine
bilateral relationship."
Brussels is particularly peeved, feeling somewhat cheated that Yanukovich
might have conveyed a subtle hint that he wouldn't push the envelope
against his political rival to a point of no return and now is claiming his
hands are tied and he cannot interfere with the trial.
But then, Yanukovich is a shrewd politician and he would know that nothing
is a final word in politics. He is still keeping Brussels on tenterhooks by
hinting that an overhaul of the criminal code under which Tymoshenko was
put on trial may be underway. On the other hand, he would also like to know
what the EU could give him in return.
Yanukovich would have sized up that the issue does not agitate
domestic public opinion
The majority opinion in Ukraine seems to be that the charges against the
iconic figure of the "Orange" revolution are justified.
People know she is a billionaire child of the days of "wild capitalism" in
the 1990s when in the debris of the Soviet Union's collapse and by
exploiting the general lawlessness, Ukraine's newly rich made fortunes out
of state property - often enough off Ukraine's import of Russian natural
gas.
The apathy of the people toward Tymoshenko's fate underlines the public
awareness that the "Orange" revolution was not a revolution at all, but in
reality a game of musical chairs between Ukrainian millionaires and
billionaires.
The West thought it won Ukraine's soul while Moscow's able ambassador in
Kiev, Viktor Chernomyrdin (former Russian prime minister and the grey
cardinal of Russia's energy politics) probably had the last laugh -
historically speaking.
Anyway, the loudest demands for Tymoshenko's release have come from the
West. Apart from the EU and Aston, several European capitals have warned
Yanukovich.
Interestingly, the White House in Washington chose not to come
down too hard on Yanukovich and instead demanded that the case be reviewed
A poignant irony may appear to be that Moscow joined hands with the West.
Which is indeed a smart move. After all, why should Russia allow itself to
be seen as the permanent antithesis of the rule of law?
Leitmotif of Putin presidency.
But, polemics apart, Moscow's stance is actually highly nuanced and it
underscores the struggle for Ukraine's soul that is about to begin.
The Russian Foreign Ministry statement says at the outset that Moscow
"respects" Ukraine's sovereignty and the independence of the judiciary in
that country. It implies that Moscow would accept Yanukovich's contention,
if he chooses to do so, that he cannot undo a court verdict (which the West
is demanding).
Secondly, the Russian statement claims that if the "leaders of many states
and the world public" perceive that this has been a politically-motivated
trial, it is because the 2009 gas deal as such was concluded in "strict
accordance with the laws of Russia and Ukraine and the applicable rules of
international law".
It (Moscow) then took a step aside and noted that there is an "obvious anti-Russian
subtext in this story", which is what the West's calls to "remove the
situation [of Tymoshenko] from the agreed legal field unilaterally" are all
about. Moscow asserted: "The [Russian-Ukrainian gas] contracts must be
fulfilled."
Moscow isn't sure of the road that Yanukovich may ultimately choose- to
withstand or to cave in to Western pleas to release Tymoshenko from custody
and dismiss the case by fiat.
The bottom line for Moscow is that the 2009 gas deal cannot be reopened and
Ukraine will have to bear the burden of the market price for Russian gas,
which fuels its economy and it cannot do without.
Any price concessions at this point by Moscow would remain linked to
Ukraine's willingness to join the Customs Union with Russia (which also
include Kazakhstan and Belarus). The anger and dismay in the US and Europe
stem from their dilemma that Yanukovich, who although he appears as a
newly-minted democrat, is open to backroom politics, and presenting him
with ultimatums may only drive him toward Russia despite his relations with
the Kremlin being cool.
Reacting to the verdict in Kiev, Putin, who is currently on a visit to
China, ostentatiously distanced Moscow from Tymoshenko herself and
indirectly questioned Western motives: "Tymoshenko is not our friend, and
for me personally, she is neither a friend nor a relative. Moreover, she is
rather a political competitor, because she has always been ... a
Western-oriented politician
:)."
But Putin warned that it would be "dangerous" and "counter-productive" to
reopen the 2009 gas deal and pointed out that Ukraine and Russia would gain
more by combining their efforts on integration projects.
In reality, he echoed his proposal for creating a Eurasian Union, which he
first mooted in a signed article in Izvestiya merely a week ago. Putin said
Russia-Ukraine integration would be "more beneficial, as they would yield
economic benefits". He then repeated tactfully, "I am not speaking about
politics."
The Eurasian Union idea promises to be the leitmotif of the Putin
presidency that may commence in 2012 and may last until 2024.
The closing of the door on Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the near
term gives impetus to the idea of expanding the existing Customs Union.
But what would give the Customs Union real traction would be Ukraine's entry. If that happens, no matter what the rubric is called, an Eurasian Union is born.
The tussle over Tymoshenko's fate goes way past a matter of
rule of law and the legacy of a "color" revolution.
Ukraine scores own goal for Russia By M K Bhadrakumar
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included:
the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/MJ13Ag03.html
Along the midriff of Eurasia, an engrossing battle of wits may have begun
that could phenomenally transform the post-Soviet space.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's recent call for forming a Eurasian
Union now seems more like a prescient call of the bugle
The seven-year sentence handed down on Tuesday to Yulia Tymoshenko, the
former prime minister of Ukraine, by the district court in Kiev holds the
potential to become a turning point in post-Soviet politics.
Ukraine has always been the great fault line in Eurasian politics.
The "Orange" revolution of 2005 made that abundantly clear.
How the endgame over the demise of the "Orange" revolution plays out in the
coming months will determine a host of issues, which include:
- Russia's integration processes in the post-Soviet space and
- the surge of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the territories of the former Soviet
Union.
Tymoshenko has been found guilty of misusing her office as prime minister
in negotiating Ukraine's January 2009 gas deal with Russia, causing the
country an estimated loss of US $200 million. Judge Rodion Kireyev said,
"In January 2009, Tymoshenko ... exercising the duties of prime minister
... used her powers for criminal ends and, acting deliberately, carried out
actions ... which led to serious consequences."
The 51-year-old former prime minister has been ordered to pay the damages
caused to the state and debarred from holding public office for three years
after completion of her seven-year prison term.
But Tymoshenko is no push-over.
Her trademark is her singular lack of any sense of moderation and that she
never ever settles for a back seat.
She has cried out that the trial is a political vendetta by the regime of
President Viktor Yanukovich, which she promptly compared with Josef
Stalin's Soviet Union.
She also lost no time shrewdly injecting a heavy dose of geopolitics into
her case: "This is an authoritarian regime that is distancing Ukraine from
Europe, while using European rhetoric."
Her strident words have found resonance in Western capitals. The European
Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton reacted within hours of the
Kiev verdict: "The way the Ukrainian authorities will generally respect
universal values and the rule of law, and specifically how they will handle
these cases, risks having profound implications for the EU-Ukraine
bilateral relationship."
Brussels is particularly peeved, feeling somewhat cheated that Yanukovich
might have conveyed a subtle hint that he wouldn't push the envelope
against his political rival to a point of no return and now is claiming his
hands are tied and he cannot interfere with the trial.
But then, Yanukovich is a shrewd politician and he would know that nothing
is a final word in politics. He is still keeping Brussels on tenterhooks by
hinting that an overhaul of the criminal code under which Tymoshenko was
put on trial may be underway. On the other hand, he would also like to know
what the EU could give him in return.
Yanukovich would have sized up that the issue does not agitate
domestic public opinion
The majority opinion in Ukraine seems to be that the charges against the
iconic figure of the "Orange" revolution are justified.
People know she is a billionaire child of the days of "wild capitalism" in
the 1990s when in the debris of the Soviet Union's collapse and by
exploiting the general lawlessness, Ukraine's newly rich made fortunes out
of state property - often enough off Ukraine's import of Russian natural
gas.
The apathy of the people toward Tymoshenko's fate underlines the public
awareness that the "Orange" revolution was not a revolution at all, but in
reality a game of musical chairs between Ukrainian millionaires and
billionaires.
The West thought it won Ukraine's soul while Moscow's able ambassador in
Kiev, Viktor Chernomyrdin (former Russian prime minister and the grey
cardinal of Russia's energy politics) probably had the last laugh -
historically speaking.
Anyway, the loudest demands for Tymoshenko's release have come from the
West. Apart from the EU and Aston, several European capitals have warned
Yanukovich.
Interestingly, the White House in Washington chose not to come
down too hard on Yanukovich and instead demanded that the case be reviewed
A poignant irony may appear to be that Moscow joined hands with the West.
Which is indeed a smart move. After all, why should Russia allow itself to
be seen as the permanent antithesis of the rule of law?
Leitmotif of Putin presidency.
But, polemics apart, Moscow's stance is actually highly nuanced and it
underscores the struggle for Ukraine's soul that is about to begin.
The Russian Foreign Ministry statement says at the outset that Moscow
"respects" Ukraine's sovereignty and the independence of the judiciary in
that country. It implies that Moscow would accept Yanukovich's contention,
if he chooses to do so, that he cannot undo a court verdict (which the West
is demanding).
Secondly, the Russian statement claims that if the "leaders of many states
and the world public" perceive that this has been a politically-motivated
trial, it is because the 2009 gas deal as such was concluded in "strict
accordance with the laws of Russia and Ukraine and the applicable rules of
international law".
It (Moscow) then took a step aside and noted that there is an "obvious anti-Russian
subtext in this story", which is what the West's calls to "remove the
situation [of Tymoshenko] from the agreed legal field unilaterally" are all
about. Moscow asserted: "The [Russian-Ukrainian gas] contracts must be
fulfilled."
Moscow isn't sure of the road that Yanukovich may ultimately choose- to
withstand or to cave in to Western pleas to release Tymoshenko from custody
and dismiss the case by fiat.
The bottom line for Moscow is that the 2009 gas deal cannot be reopened and
Ukraine will have to bear the burden of the market price for Russian gas,
which fuels its economy and it cannot do without.
Any price concessions at this point by Moscow would remain linked to
Ukraine's willingness to join the Customs Union with Russia (which also
include Kazakhstan and Belarus). The anger and dismay in the US and Europe
stem from their dilemma that Yanukovich, who although he appears as a
newly-minted democrat, is open to backroom politics, and presenting him
with ultimatums may only drive him toward Russia despite his relations with
the Kremlin being cool.
Reacting to the verdict in Kiev, Putin, who is currently on a visit to
China, ostentatiously distanced Moscow from Tymoshenko herself and
indirectly questioned Western motives: "Tymoshenko is not our friend, and
for me personally, she is neither a friend nor a relative. Moreover, she is
rather a political competitor, because she has always been ... a
Western-oriented politician
:)." But Putin warned that it would be "dangerous" and "counter-productive" to
reopen the 2009 gas deal and pointed out that Ukraine and Russia would gain
more by combining their efforts on integration projects.
In reality, he echoed his proposal for creating a Eurasian Union, which he
first mooted in a signed article in Izvestiya merely a week ago. Putin said
Russia-Ukraine integration would be "more beneficial, as they would yield
economic benefits". He then repeated tactfully, "I am not speaking about
politics."
The Eurasian Union idea promises to be the leitmotif of the Putin
presidency that may commence in 2012 and may last until 2024.
The closing of the door on Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the near
term gives impetus to the idea of expanding the existing Customs Union.
But what would give the Customs Union real traction would be Ukraine's entry. If that happens, no matter what the rubric is called, an Eurasian Union is born.
The tussle over Tymoshenko's fate goes way past a matter of
rule of law and the legacy of a "color" revolution.
Відповіді
2012.03.13 | Мартинюк
Цікаво - висновки автора :
>The Eurasian Union idea promises to be the leitmotif of the Putin presidency that may commence in 2012 and may last until 2024.>The closing of the door on Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the near term gives impetus to the idea of expanding the existing Customs Union.
>But what would give the Customs Union real traction would be Ukraine's entry. If that happens, no matter what the rubric is called, an Eurasian Union is born.
>The tussle over Tymoshenko's fate goes way past a matter of rule of law and the legacy of a "color" revolution.
2012.03.13 | Хвізик
я би аж так не важав
Мартинюк пише:> >But what would give the Customs Union real traction would be Ukraine's entry. If that happens, no matter what the rubric is called, an Eurasian Union is born.
Вхід України до якоїсь структури може так само означати і кінець тої структури. Приклад: ми так колись вже увійшли до СНГ. І який з нього толк?
2012.03.13 | Лермонтов
Україна в СНД _НЕ_ ввійшла - тому й ніякого толку.
2012.03.13 | Хвізик
значить, я навів невдалий приклад.
2012.03.13 | zdiplok
вдалий . бо аналогічно коментують полісімейкери у оточенні Президента
2012.03.13 | zdiplok
у оточенні керівництва вважають що зближення з ослабленим кацапстаном буде НАШОЮ анексією їх
не одразу зближуватисяале по плану і віртуозно.
Тим більше шо їхня головна голова незабаром....
і як казав дядя джо при смерті хрущеву і компанії:
вони ж як сліпі котятя без папи піндоси і бандерівці передушать їх умить
2012.03.13 | Хвізик
Re: у оточенні керівництва вважають що зближення з ослабленим кацапстаном буде НАШОЮ анексією їх
zdiplok пише:> і як казав дядя джо при смерті хрущеву і компанії:
>
> вони ж як сліпі котятя без папи піндоси і бандерівці передушать їх умить
дядя джо був найрозумніший серед них, і він першим пойняв, що він все просрав, за його ж власним висловом. Крім нього, хватило розуму це зрозуміти тільки одному Берії. Всі інші - просто ідіоти
2012.03.13 | zdiplok
після смерті сталінда сесеер вкрав ядерну зброю, наробив іншої підсадив Європу на свою нафту/газ
Хрущоввміло повернув ленінскі принципі колективного керівництва
наказав реанімувати всю парадігму контролованоі опозиції
яку суттєво розширив і розробив далі шоп генерала Міронова,
який очолював ленінградске ГБ
ЗУВАЖ:
під час ініціації карєри путінга Ленінградске, вже ПОСТ МІРОНІВСЬКЕ ГБ очюлював саме той персонаж
який нещодавно ПІДНЯВ НА ВИЩІЙ РІВЕНЬ
НАВАЛЬНОГО.
це генерал-полковник КГБ Сергій Степашін
офіційно відповів на звинувачення навалного в тому що викрадено 4 міліарди
театр під назвою ТРЄСТ )))
Я думаю ленінци конешно ідіоти
но ідіоти у вищій мірі небеспечні поки живі
що вказує на єдиний можливий рецепт для виживання цивілізації людства:
ампутація ленінців
2012.03.13 | zdiplok
ага. і ці теж. взагалі Bhadrakumar розуміє. Ось його наробок:
http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/_dsp/dsp_authorBio3.cfm?authID=1081M K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian career diplomat who has served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow.
Articles by M K Bhadrakumar
'The door we never opened ...'
A deal-breaker for India
A fatal flaw in Afghan peace process
A mad scramble over Afghanistan
A moment of truth for Obama in Moscow
A new Chinese red line over Iran
A triumph for Turkey - and its allies
A United States-Iran opportunity arises
Afghan race becomes Karzai's cliffhanger
Afghanistan abyss awaits Obama
Afghanistan caught in friendly fire
Al-Qaeda to the rescue for Bush's legacy
Battle lines move from Kashmir to Kabul
Beijing cautions US over Iran
Bhutto's death a blow to 'war on terror'
Catalysts of conflict in Central Asia
China breaks its silence on Afghanistan
China dips its toe in the Black Sea
China, India, play it again for Uncle Sam
China, Russia welcome Iran into the fold
Clinton delivers unwanted tidings to New Delhi
Energy superpower emerges in the Caspian
Hindu gods spike Chinese dragon
India begins uphill journey with the SCO
India blows up a monsoon
India finds a $40bn friend in Iran
India frets over Obama's Chinamania
India grapples with the Obama era
India holds key in NATO's world view
India opts for continuity, stability
India seeks 'velvet divorce' from Iran
India tiptoes to the new Middle East
India wakes to a Tibetan headache
India-Pakistan relations in free fall
Intrigue takes Afghanistan to the brink
Iran torpedoes US plans for Iraqi oil
Iran, US take their fight to Afghanistan
Israeli election muddies Obama's waters
Medvedev jumps the gun on Iran
Medvedev reaches out to China
NATO reaches into the Indian Ocean
Obama can dream an AfPak dream
Obama may cede Iran's nuclear rights
Pakistani oil diplomacy at a crossroads
Pipeline deal is sweet music for Iran
Russia challenges US in the Islamic world
Russia joins the war in Afghanistan
Russia stops US on road to Afghanistan
Russia throws a wrench in NATO's works
Russia's tango with Tehran
Russia, China on comradely terms
Russia, Iran tighten the energy noose
Sino-Russian baby comes of age
Snub for Iran eases nuclear crisis
Sri Lanka wards off Western bullying
The door to Iraq's oil opens
The great game of hunting pirates
The Great Game on a razor's edge
The Taliban's shadow hangs over NATO
Turkish snub changes Middle East game
US edges closer to engaging Iran
US promotes Iran in energy market
US steps up its Central Asian tango
West traps Russia in its own backyard
What Obama could learn from Karzai
http://www.google.com/search?as_q=Bhadrakumar+asian+times&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=www.atimes.com&as_occt=any&safe=active&tbs=&as_filetype=&as_rights=
2012.03.13 | Bayan
Зміст відповідає назві: просто огляд, бeз авторської позиції і то далeко нe бeзсторонній
Правда, кінчики рогів з-під капeлюха усe ж таки проглядаються:zdiplok пише:
> The majority opinion in Ukraine seems to be that the charges against the iconic figure of the "Orange" revolution are justified.
Буцімто згідно думки більшості насeлeння України звинувачeння проти Тимошeнко є справeдливими. Егe ж, панові мабуть відомі рeзультати якогось рeфeрeндуму, який я тут за бугром вочeвидь упустив.
-- тому можна лeгко здогадатись, хто пану замовив цю статeйку.
2012.03.13 | Sviatoslav D
Твори колишнього індійського дипломата можуть тут багато кого надихнути
Наприклад його засудження злочинної інтервенції у Лівії, яке за словами пана екс-дипломата: NATO's Libyan Intervention Evokes Collective Memory Of Colonial Era. Мабуть мова про його колективну пам'ять ще з часів совєцко-індійської дружби на вєкі...Принаймні, позицію індійського уряду, який став на сторону агрєссора, він засуджує.
Інші його твори теж цікаві і теж evokes дух світлих часів братерських стосунків Леоніда Брежнєва та Індіри Ганді:
- Eurasian Heartland: America Breathes Life into a New Cold War
- Russia remains a Black Sea power
- US ally Musharraf in a tangle over Iran
Ще у серпні 2008 року він написав про те, як
- Russia takes control of Turkmen (world?) gas
Правильний пацан, карочє. Зразковий авторитет для справжніх. Сумніваюсь, що він вставляє смайлики, цитуючи Путіна, тим більше тепер.