05/20/2007 | Вячеслав Хаврусь

Вірніше, чим він займається в науковому/освітньому плані, крім адміністративної роботи? Цим дописом не хочу будувати якихось скептичних припущень, мені цікавить що є насправді? Може, з цією людиною можна було б співпрацювати в плані реформування системи освіти в Україні?

Нижче наводжу одержаний Майданом прес-реліз, з якого в мене й виникло наведене вище питання:

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"SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT" WITHIN A GLOBAL CONTEXT & UKRAINE'S CURRENT SITUATION:

PRESENTATION: By Mykhailo Zgurovsky at the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, Washington, DC, May 1, 2007

REPORT: By Violetta Tutunik, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation, May 10, 2007

Mykhailo Zgurovsky, Rector of the Institute for Applied System Analysis and the National Technical University of Ukraine ("Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"), presented a mathematical model, Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix, and described how Ukraine's prospects for development can be analyzed using this model, at a presentation at the Kennan Institute in Washington on May 1.

With limited resources left in the world, Dr. Zgurovsky believes that development is a complex process and should focus on multiple aspects, not only economical ones.

When a country chooses a model for development, there needs to be a balance between the different aspects to achieve sustainable development. His model of sustainable development includes four dimensions of analysis: economic, ecological, social and institutional.

The purpose is to find a universal mathematical approach to describe the complex interdisciplinary process of sustainable development and rank countries according to how well they do in all four dimensions.

Then an analysis of results is to follow in order to present conclusions in a comprehensible manner to policymakers.

The Sustainable Development Gauging Matrix (SDGM) uses the following data to measure sustainable development in different countries:

[1] economic:
a. growth: Global Competitiveness Index (source: World Economic Forum)
b. Economic Freedom Index (source: Heritage Foundation)

[2] ecological:
a. Environmental Sustainability Index (source: Yale University)

[3] social and institutional:
a. Quality of Life Index
b. Human Development Index (source: UN)
c. Knowledge Index (source: UN)

Results: after countries are measured in each of these aspects, they are ranked into an index of sustainable development. For example, in the 2006 simulation, the countries that came out with high rankings were United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and various Western European countries.

The countries that ranked highest in all four categories were Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, respectively.

To estimate the adequateness of the model, nighttime light use is examined. This provides information about economic and social levels of countries. Generally, the higher the level of nighttime light usage, the higher the economic and ecological levels in any given country.

ASSESSING THE CURRENT SITUATION IN UKRAINE AND THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

According to Dr. Zgurovsky, after the Orange Revolution, Ukraine became a significant player in the world. The balance between the factions/parties was a good base to introduce a model of development.

Unfortunately, soon after the Orange Revolution, certain political parties tried to change this balance and go back to a previous model (old Soviet ways).

However, Dr. Zgurovsky believes that this is part of the democratic process and the parliament will find a way towards sustainable development and will come back to the democratic model.

Ukraine will not resort back to the authoritarian model due to the renewal of the people as a result of their experiencing the Orange Revolution. They will no longer allow oligarchs to take them back to the Soviet model.

Future scenarios include:

[1] short-term scenario: "Old Politicians" 2004-2010
a. separation of Ukraine (about 5% probability)
b. permanent strife for power of present political forces and their gradual separation from the nation (90-95% probability)

[2] mid-term scenario: "New Generation of Politicians" 2010-2015 coming to power of educated and democratic-thinking leaders

[3] long-term scenario: "Fast Progressing" 2015-2050 where sustainable development can be effectively implemented.

BEDROCK OF A NATION

To promote the strategic utilization of new knowledge, science and technology, and human resources

In terms of reaching the sustainable development goals, a comparison of Ukraine and the Euro 5 (the top-rated countries in terms of success in sustainable development: Finland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom) is undertaken. In this comparison, the goal is to determine what can be changed in Ukraine to achieve these goals.

The following criteria of evaluation will be used:

[1] Intellectual assets index
a. Years of schooling
b. Cell phones

[2] advancement index
a. research and development
b. military expenditures
c. corruption perception

[3] foresightedness index
a. income inequality
b. child mortality
c. CO2 emissions

POSSIBLE MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT FOR UKRAINE

[1] CEA model - not attractive for Ukraine

[2] G8 model - not attractive
a. Great in terms of economic development but problematic in the ecological and social aspects

[3] Harmonized Society model (four-dimensional approach) - most attractive for Ukraine!
a. Ex: Finland, Netherlands, etc.

Ukraine should utilize the experiences of different countries to determine which development path to chose.

Contact Information for Michael Zgorovsky:
Rector
National Technical University of Ukraine
"Kyiv Polytechnic Institute"
37 Peremogy Ave.
Kyiv, Ukraine 03056
zgur@zgurov.kiev.ua or zgurovsm@hotmail.com